NHL betting fans may be scared off the Montreal Canadiens after seeing the Flyers crush them 6-0 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final. But, remember, the Penguins hammered the Habs to open the second round too. And how did that series turn out? We should thus keep an open mind when evaluating the series as a whole.
Montreal Canadiens vs Philadelphia Flyers
NHL odds to win series: Canadiens -105, Flyers -115
It's like nothing's changed since the Broad Street Bullies' heyday of the 1970s. The Flyers still win games today by intimidating and hammering opposing defenders on the forecheck.
With Mike Richards, Scott Hartnell, Daniel Carcillo and company throwing their bodies around with reckless abandon, the Flyers' attack has overwhelmed opponents so far in the playoffs. The Devils' defence corps was just far too small. Boston's Zdeno Chara was the perfect man to stop Philly but Boston needed to clone him; Chara couldn't do it all on his own.
The Flyers will deploy a similar strategy against the Habs, but will it work as well? In P.K. Subban, Josh Gorges, and Hal Gill, among others, Montreal has better depth than Boston or New Jersey did on the back end and arguably a more physical group. Even though it didn't look that way yesterday, they're better equipped to weather Philly's storm than most teams are.
The Habs' forwards have contributed to Montreal's sports betting surprise by beating opponents with speed instead of strength. I thought little guys like Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri were in over their heads against the veteran Penguin defenders and Clydesdales like Brooks Orpik, but they prevailed – especially Cammalleri.
The Flyers have a tough wall to penetrate with Chris Pronger, Braydon Coburn and Kimmo Timonen, but the Habs overcame a similar challenge in round two.
And then there's goaltending. The Flyers still look like the inferior team in that regard on paper. Michael Leighton was stellar in Game 1 but fatigue could take over soon, as he hadn't played for a couple of months before returning from his ankle injury last week. Jaroslav Halak isn't perfect, as he showed in Game 1, but I'd still bet on a rebound. He's stolen multiple games in these playoffs and he'll do it again.
Expect a close series – and don't bet on the winner's Stanley Cup NHL futures. In the end, I think Montreal's goaltending and speed up front will be the narrow difference maker.
Today's free pick: Canadiens (-105) in seven
