The 2010 NFL preseason odds already are showing they are likely to be child's play but NFL cappers have a lot more winning ahead. Clearly betting NFL preseason football is hugely profitable.
The NFC South is a tough division to figure in NFL betting, as we've seen three of the top four teams all over the map for several seasons. One year Carolina dominates; the next year it's the Saints' turn and they win the Super Bowl. Will Atlanta take over in 2010?
ATLANTA FALCONS
NFL futures odds: +200
Bettors shouldn't have been too shocked or disappointed when the Falcons regressed in 2009. Matt Ryan was good but also lucky as a rookie; his 11 picks were unheard of. He had to take a step backward and it didn't help the Falcons when injuries to important pieces like Michael Turner and Peria Jerry set the team back on both sides of the ball.
The 2010 Falcons haven't changed their personnel much but should still improve. A healthy season from Jerry will bolster the Falcons' run defense. Turner, who lost 16 pounds this offseason, should have the bounce back in his step. That will take the pressure off Ryan.
The Falcons aren't the perfect team – the defense still has a ways to go – but they should be well above average offensively and contend for a postseason berth in 2010.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
NFL futures odds: +600
The Panthers are a maddening team, extremely proficient in some areas and weak in others. Few teams run the ball as well; DeAngelo Williams didn't hit as many home runs in 2009 as he did in 2008 but he's still a shifty playmaker. Jonathan Stewart would have a shot to become the NFL's best running back if he could ever stay healthy and get enough carries. He's a monster who also has speed to spare.
But the Panthers have some concerning holes. Their run defense was weak last year and their pass "D," though it was the NFC's best last year, could regress. Losing Julius Peppers damages the pass rush and will give opposing quarterbacks more time to think.
The key for Carolina is Matt Moore. If he can deliver on the promise he showed late last season under center and establish a rapport with Steve Smith, the Panthers could surprise.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
NFL futures odds: -175
Even though they won Super Bowl XLIV, you'll be hard-pressed to find the New Orleans Saints atop any Super Bowl XLV odds leaderboard. It's not that any books or bettors believe 2009 was a fluke; the Saints deserved their success. But so much went right last season that the Saints are due for some bad luck.
The signs were there late last year. New Orleans will be an offensive juggernaut again but its defense gradually slipped as 2009 progressed. Their run defense disappeared and the pass "D's" value was inflated from a fluky-high number of turnovers.
The Saints still look like a playoff team in 2010 but they won't flirt with perfection again unless their D improves. And let's not forget the power of the Madden cover curse.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
NFL futures odds: +1500
The Tampa Bay Bucs are a borderline consensus pick to finish 32nd overall in the NFL this season. Bodog, for example, lists their Super Bowl odds at 150 to 1, behind St. Louis, Buffalo, Cleveland and Detroit.
The good news: Tampa is assembling some useful pieces. Josh Freeman flashed major dual-threat quarterback potential as a rookie last year. The Bucs also believe they found their next Warren Sapp when they drafted Gerald McCoy third overall last spring. They even added some elite wideout prospects in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams.
The bad news: it's unlikely that the youngsters will all mature at the same time and morph Tampa into a contender in one season. They'll take their lumps – especially in a tough division like the NFC South. Tampa stinks at running the ball and stopping the run. Avoid them like the plague at your sportsbook.
ScoresOddsPicks.com pick: Handicapping the NFC South isn't nearly as easy as some bettors think. The Saints are great but the Falcons are set to bounce back and even the Panthers have sleeper potential. I think Atlanta does in fact step up and snatch the division this year. Matty "Ice" Ryan is primed for a breakout season. He spent the offseason studying tape of the game's elite quarterbacks and his preparation will pay dividends.
