Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Wild Card Previews: New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks, NY Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

It's playoff time and the matchups for Wild Card week are tasty. Three of the four games have spreads of a field goal or less. Let's start by looking at Saturday's action.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, January 8, 4:30 p.m. ET

The favorite: Saints -11

Over/Under: 45

The Saints are clearly the better team than the Seahawks, the first sub-.500 team ever to reach the playoffs, but how scary is an 11-point spread on the road? The Saints are 2-6 against the spread over their last eight games when favored by 10.5 or more points. They're also 1-8 ATS over their last nine games against teams with losing records.

Then again, the lowly Seahawks don't exactly inspire sports betting confidence. They're 6-19-1 ATS over their last 26 against teams with winning records. They're also 1-5 ATS over their last six as an underdog and have lost four straight ATS as a dog of 10.5 or more points.

The trends point toward the OVER in this game. Eight of Seattle's last nine games have gone OVER the total; the over is 5-1-1 in New Orleans' last seven playoff games.

Statistically, the NFL betting matchup between these two teams is no contest. The Saints have the NFL's No. 3 passing attack and No. 6 overall offense. The Seahawks are 28th in total offense, including second-last with 89 rushing yards per game. The Saints are fourth in the NFL in pass defense and total defense; the Seahawks have the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL. Yes, they are in the playoffs.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Saturday, January 8, 8:05 p.m. ET

Betting favorite: Colts -3

Over/Under: 44.5

Most of the betting spread trends favor the visiting Jets entering their Wild-Card showdown with the Colts. New York is 7-1 ATS over its last eight as a road underdog of three points or fewer; 11-5 ATS over its last 16 as an underdog in general; 8-3 ATS over its last 11 against AFC opponents; and 10-4 ATS over its last 14 road games.

Meanwhile, Indy is 1-4 ATS over its last five home games and 2-5 ATS over its last seven as a favorite. Then again, the Colts often step up in big games; they're 18-7-2 ATS over their last 27 games against teams with winning records. The home team in this series is also 4-1 over the last five meetings.

The over/under trends overwhelmingly favor the OVER. The over is 5-1-1 in the Colts' last seven games and 16-5 in the Jets' last 21 games overall. Perhaps Gang Green's offense is underrated and its defense is overrated.

The Jets enter the Wild Card game with the NFL's No. 4 rushing attack, averaging 148.4 yards per game. They rank just 22nd in passing. Defensively, they're a top-three unit in the NFL, sixth against the pass and third against the run.

Indianapolis leads the NFL in passing offense with 288.1 yards per game but its running game is 29th with only 92.7 yards per game. Defensively, the Colts are mediocre, 13th against the pass, 25th against the run and 20th overall with 341.5 yards surrendered per game.

For more information: NFL playoffs preview: video for the wild card games or the podcast.

 


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