Baseball Betting Tips: Third Paragraph Left Me Speechless and Will Astound You Too

So many of our top sports angles are counterintuitive. A high percentage of systems that have won at least 80 units or have a z-score of 4.5 or better involve betting on bad teams and pitchers and/or against quality teams and pitchers. These angles help us anticipate regression to the mean, isolating overachieving and underachieving teams. This advantage is heightened by the fact the public fancies betting on superior teams, hence while squares pay a premium betting overpriced squads, we get a discount on the posted sportsbook odds.

While this paradigm applies in all sports, certainly not equally. At one extreme, college football is the only team game in which mother lode conventionalities often actually favor the better-quality squad. However in baseball, the semblant paradoxes (to the commoners) are furthest magnified. There are two obvious whys and wherefores. As I have stated countless times, oddsmakers overvalue pitching, so baseball levies higher imposts in select situations than reality justifies. Furthermore oddsmakers must account for taking bets from plebeians, who are even more un-persuaded by steep moneylines than lofty pointspreads. To quote the single worst degenerate gambler I have ever known, “They don’t charge juice when the bet wins.” Those would be words to live by if a gambler hit 100 percent of bets. The sharp riposte is that in moneyline betting, bookmakers do not disburse recompense based on winning percentage.

In baseball betting, many of the most profitable gamblers in the world have winning…and I do mean, “winning” percentages of less than .500. For example if a starting pitcher has an ERA a full three runs higher than the other starting pitcher, the public will salivate at the thought of betting on the better pitcher. They would have lost 89 units if they staked on said situation every time the line was -150 or higher. Betting on the vastly inferior pitcher would have won you 20.8 units. However in the process the winning bettor would be 282-498, hitting just 36.2 percent of bets. Or to put it another way, to the aforesaid degenerate, the bookmakers does pay juice when our underdogs win.

Two terrible starting pitchers (both with ERAs of 5.00 or higher) are facing each other. It must be a higher scoring game right? So bet the over. There is one problem: such games go under at a 722-610-62 rate. Counterintuitive anticipation of mean regression proves invaluable again. Of course, some uncultivated bettors may point out that is only 54.2 percent winners. One could make quite the living riding angles that hit better than 54 percent over nearly 1.400 games. However keep in mind, quoted stats are not our preeminent angles, just a few that demonstrate how contrarian reasoning pays dividends. All systems are only part of the preponderance of evidence before making a bet.

So how about two pitchers with ERAs of less than 2.00 going head-to-head? Did you surmise it would be wise go over instead of the knee-jerk under? You would be correct as such situations have gone over 632-548-46. At 53.6 winners, that is a lukewarm angle at best, but the extreme value is avoiding the impulsive bet to wager on two superior pitchers under. Turning that frown upside down is a substantial net gain. Please note that all quoted angles go back to 2005. Lateral thinking when applied to sports betting means vertical profits. In baseball betting, thinking outside the box translates into significant capital gains.

Getting winning intel like this every day converted to winners from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com

MLB Betting Sports Service Guru About to Change Life For Gamblers and Ruin it For Sportsbooks

Baseball bettors tend to a gift to every sportsbook and bookmaker because of their propensity to bet on big and often losing favorites. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com is about to change the life of gamblers with a video in which he reveals his basic secret. He then explains why MLB is more of a buyers beware for those shopping for sports services.

NFL Draft Odds Posted; Marcus Mariota Props, Jameis Winston Projected First

NFL draft odds are posted at many offshore books. The two highest profile players in the draft are the two most recent Heisman Trophy sensations, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. Once considered a dead-heat between the two, the former Florida State signal caller Winston is an exorbitant 2/13 favorite to be drafted No. 1. This means gamblers would have to risk $130 to win $20. He is at 4-1 to go second or lower.

The erratic stock of the most recent Heisman winner Mariota is back on the rise according to most respect mock drafts. The team currently in possession of the second pick, the Tennessee Titans are the favorite to get him. Sports betting experts do not trust that the Cleveland Browns are buying into Johnny Manziel purported lifestyle epiphany as Cleveland is tied with the New York Jets are 7/2 to be Mariota’s landing spot on draft day.

The complete list from Sportsbook.ag is below:

Which team will draft Marcus Mariota?

Titans 7/5
Browns 7/2
Jets 7/2
Buccaneers 4/1
Rams 15/2
Redskins 12/1
Chargers 15/1
Bears 18/1
Bills 20/1
Texans 20/1

Over/unders are posted on three top wide receivers: Amari Cooper at 5.5 (with slight juice on the under), Kevin White at 7.5, and Melvin Gordon at 21.5 (juiced to the over). Though oddsmakers believe the top two picks could be quarterbacks, no other signal callers are likely to go in the first round. The over-under on quarterbacks selected in round one is 2.5 but under odds are a very steep 2/13 with over unlikely at 4-1. For sports handicapper picks from nation’s top betting experts visit OffshoreInsiders.com

Sports Handicapping Free Plays; NBA Odds Rundown

The Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers, Washington Wizards-Toronto Raptors, and Dallas Mavericks-Houston Rockets betting odds top the sports handicapping roundup for April 21. With Washington, Houston, and Cleveland leading the respective series 1-0, here is how the public consensus is shaping up as well as line moves.

The Cavs are a steady (-11) at home with a total of 207, also unchanged from the opener. The only double-digit favorite on tonight’s betting portfolio has gotten 71 percent of the sportsbook bets in Vegas and offshore, the top consensus of either the side or total on any NBA playoff game today. Though the public tends to prefer wagering on the over, 56 percent of bets are on the under.

Toronto is (-5) unaffected from the opening line. The total has risen two points to 207. The consensus is 61 percent are betting on the Raptors and 59 percent on the over. Houston is (-6) up a half-point from the first available line with a total of 215.5 up from 214. Sixty-two percent are investing on the home chalk, with a surprising 54 percent taking the under.

A free pick tonight is a premium play from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com.
BOSTON (MILEY +117) Tampa (Archer)

We have an early season underdog angle with very specific parameters that has won 207.4 units. Please note: the reason the units jumped is I more accurately identified as underdog including laying up to -104 because they are underdogs as opposed to pick or plus after juice as previous units won was based. Also we redefined early season based on game number rather than month. Also starting pitchers with an ERA above 10.00 who are not getting at least 130 are solid bets at 236-212 for +14.2 units.

Oh that is far from impressive and does not even quality as corroborating data, but it does tell us not to be deterred by the rough start by Wade Miley. Tampa has lost three straight. Tampa is 1-5 at home -4.2 units hitting just .202. Road team is 3-0 in Chris Archer’s starts this season. Wade Miley is 2-0 to Tampa with an ERA of 0.68 and a WHIP of 1.050. Archer is 1-4 to Boston with an ERA of 6.03 and a WHIP of 1.805. Rays are 1-7 in Archers last 8 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The free winner is on the Red Sox. Joe Duffy’s Picks keeps winning. We are 66-54 with 55 underdog winners. Yes after 120 picks we have more underdogs that have won than all picks combined have lost. In fact 18 winners were of 130 or more.

Get more info and winners at OffshoreInsiders.com

May weather vs. Pacquiao Odds, Free Sports Picks, Betting Previews

With several weeks of betting in on the highly-anticipated Floyd Mayweather versus Manny Pacquiao fight, Mayweather is a 20/41 favorite with Pacquiao at 7/4. However, there are many sportsbook options long before that battle takes place, not the least of which is tonight.

Tonight the NBA playoffs roll along. Up one game to none, the Chicago Bulls host the Milwaukee Bucks. Chicago is (-7.5) with a total of 186.5. Currently 74 percent of bets taken against the spread are for the Bulls with 62 percent favoring the over. Also leading 1-0 in the series, the Golden State Warriors host the New Orleans Pelicans. Golden State is the choice of 68 percent who placed a wager on the spread. An overwhelming betting consensus is putting an ante on the over at a substantial 88 percent. Also Joe Duffy’s Picks, the hottest and top all-time MLB handicapper has a free premium pick on the Reds.

CINCINNATI (DESCLAFANI +105) Milwaukee (Peralta)

We have an early season underdog angle that is +207.3 units and you have already won a ton this season with it. While the Reds offensive numbers are not exactly impressive, their OBP, slugging, batting, average, and OPS are all better than Milwaukee. Milwaukee is 2-10 for -9 units this season. They are 0-2 with Wily Peralta. Milwaukee is batting .217 and is last in the majors with 30 runs, a .267 on-base percentage, a .303 slugging percentage and three homers, including none in the last six games. The Brew Crew have the worst home run percentage in MLB since 1948. Anthony Desclafani has a 1.38 ERA and tiny .769 WHIP. Reds are 16-6 in their last 22 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400 and 42-18 overall versus an opponent with a winning percentage of .400 or less. On the other hand The Brewers are 5-25 in their last 30 when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game.

There are also three NHL games tonight with the New York Rangers -115 road favorites at Pittsburgh, Minnesota -135 at home to St. Louis, and Winnepeg -140 at home against Anaheim.

Duffy has a stunning 10 bets of the professional gamblers in NBA, MLB, and NHL at OffshoreInsiders.com

Sports Picks For Free: MLB Baseball Sports Handicapper Tips

Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com has a free underdog betting winner. Despite never-ending heartbreak in extra innings, Joe Duffy’s Picks has 24 underdog winners in our 27-23 mark. With our domination of underdogs and small favorites, hitting .500 over any long period will make you serious cash. We have five daytime winning picks led by a Wise Guy. Wait until you see all the intel that points very specifically at one team all at OffshoreInsiders.com