Friday, August 31, 2007

Saturday College Football Computer Trends

All records are against the spread and compiled by the staff of 

East Carolina-Virginia Tech

The Pirates are 19-7 against the bookmakers in their last 26.  They have covered the pointspread 10-of-11 on grass. Virginia Tech has defeated the Vegas sportsbooks 23-of-31 on grass.

Alabama Birmingham-Michigan State

UAB has gone under the posted over/under in 10-of-11 non-conference contest. Michigan State has lost to the pointspread eight of their last nine.

Colorado State-Colorado

The NCAA pointspread winner in this series has been the underdog 10 of the last 11 meetings. Note sports service the Couch Potato has one of the biggest bets of the day on this game on


Virginia has gone under the offshore total in 21-of-28 on grass. The Cowboys have cashed in for college football bettors in 9-of-10 non-conference games.

Wake Forest-Boston College

Wake Forest was a shock to oddsmakers last year as they are 8-3 their last 11 overall and 9-3 their last 12 on the highway.

Washington State-Wisconsin

Wisconsin is on a great pointspread betting streak covering at a 24-9 rate. Yet as a double digit favorite, they are 8-17. The Cougars have exceeded the posted over/under in 8-of-9 as double digit dogs.

Marshall-Miami Florida

Totals players are betting the biggest over/under release of the season thus far, Stevie Vincent’s Level 5 total on this game at Marshall has gone a horrific 16-33 on the road since 1992. Miami, though is only 2-8 their last 10 in Coral Gables. Going back even further, they are 7-22 as home favorites.


Stanford has gone under the total 10-of-11 as home underdogs. The Cardinal have dropped 8-of-10 against the betting spread to the Pac 10.

Notre Dame-Irish

Many online gambling aficionados want to know about this big television game. Notre Dame is only 3-9 the last 12 against the Vegas books. The Yellow Jackets have an impressive spread record of 10-3 as a dog of three or less.

Sports Betting News and Notes For College Football

Sports handicapping news and notes for college football betting comes directly from the private clipboard of

Georgia Tech-Notre Dame

Almost all reliable sources agree that Demetrius Jones will start at QB for Notre Dame or at least be the main signal caller. The Irish, of course, must replace Brady Quinn, now with the Cleveland Browns.


Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine says that among sharp Las Vegas sports bettors and online gamblers, the consensus “surprise team” among BCS conferences is Illinois. “There is a lot of pressure on Missouri in this game.  I see serious upset potential here.”

Florida International-Penn State

Look for Penn State coach Joe Paterno to use this game to experiment.  Although he has 15 starters back, only one offensive lineman returns at his original position.


Houston must replace one of their best quarterbacks ever Kevin Kolb. They face a high powered Oregon team, trying to match points with Blake Joseph and Case Keenum battling for the No. 1 spot.  They have thrown eight passes between them at the college football level.

Houston has been experimenting with a new 4-2-5 defense and will likely face some no-huddle against the Ducks as they break in an unfamiliar alignment.


Baylor wide receiver Thomas White admits his Bears are feeling disrespected over being 21-point underdogs. Last year, the Bears led TCU 7-0 at halftime. Baylor coach Guy Morriss has said he watched the game films from last year’s matchup “about 600 times”.  Mike Godsey of, generally considered the top football handicapper in the nation said, “That sounds like a circled game to me” referring to term used by pointspread bettors looking for a betting edge in which one team may be more motivated for a blowout or to keep a game close. 

Colorado-Colorado State

Which team gets the best sleep? The kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. local time. Colorado will be without a lot of projected starters. Michael Sipili, the probable starting middle linebacker, was suspended with two reserves for offseason fighting incidents. Last year’s starting quarterback Bernard Jackson is out with personal issues.  He was supposed to play more of a “slash” jack-of-all-trades position this year. True freshman Josh Smith, another likely starter, is out with a bruised kidney.

For free sports betting picks, visit 

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Thursday GodsTips Builds on 17-9 Football Record

Thursday, August 30, 2007


America’s Greatest sports service is literally working around the clock to pick you winners.  We have two CFB Wise Guy plays to get your started, plus we added two Majors and three NFLX Majors. Remember, your password is active all-day so you can get late steam. Check out the huge bonus on the monthly pass and we have full-season packages as well. You get the all of today’s Joe Duffy’s GodsTips  $17 at  


UTAH STATE +6.5 unlv

The Aggies finally have something to look forward to and so do their fans. After years of neglect, USU took a big step toward respectability and competitiveness by opening the $12.5 million North End Zone Complex at Romney Stadium. It’s only the second time since 1998 they open at home, so this is a big one.

Utah State coach Brent Guy hasn’t taken any shortcuts while trying to rebuild the program. His first three recruiting classes have focused on freshmen instead of transfers. That hasn’t helped Guy’s record, but this will be his deepest team yet.

The Aggies have won seven games in the last three seasons, but two of those victories came against Rebels. In all, Utah State is 9-1 in its last 10 games against UNLV.  Utah State is much better at home than on the road and we see no reason why their mastery of UNLV won’t continue.


Wednesday, August 29, 2007

NFL Preseason News and Notes

Here are news and notes from the standpoint of pointspread investors. Information is from the private clipboard of the sports handicappers and sports betting services.


Mike Godsey, the top professional football betting analyst reports that the Redskins will have key players on the field longer than most teams to in the preseason finale. Quarterback Jason Campbell, third year player, but first year starter, will see his most extensive time of the preseason. Oft-injured running back Clinton Portis is also expected to see his first snaps of exhibition play.


Over/under bettors, note that the Cowboys do have a big battle for the No. 3 QB position.  Look for Matt Moore and Richard Bartel to be given a chance to air it out.


Chief’s starting quarterback Damon Huard will not play at all as he’s nursing a sore calf.  Veteran tackle Kyle Turley will play despite missing practice Tuesday for personal reasons.


The Cardinals will play their starters on each side of the ball for one or two series. Denver backup signal caller Patrick Ramsey, an experienced starter, will get little or no playing time.  Preston Parsons and Darrell Hackney will get most of the playing time at center.  They have four completions combined this preseason.


Cy McCormick, who is on the “winners list” of most online sportsbooks, reports that San Francisco’s starting units for each side of the ball will play 12 snaps or the entire first quarter, whichever comes first.


Buffalo’s starters will play two series at the most. J.P. Losman will get the start at QB, Craig Nall will also play a series or two than rookie Trent Edwards goes the rest of the way. Cornerback Terrence McGee is out and wise receiver Lee Evens is very unlikely to play.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Preseason Results Worthless Come Regular Season

Preseason results are worthless in predicting the spread winners in NFL gambling. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-12 straight up their last 14 exhibition contests. During that span, they became the first team in NFL history to begin 9-0 in consecutive seasons. 

While in the NBA and MLB, exhibition results are actually a good warning of which teams will come out of the gate quickly or slowly, making the first 10 days of MLB easy pickings on underdogs, not so in the NFL.  The Colts have won 14-of-16 September games outright.

From 1992-95, Dallas was 49-15 in the regular season, winning three Super Bowls.  Their preseason mark in those years was 7-12-1. 

While appearing in four Super Bowls from 1990-93, Buffalo was also 49-15 in regular season contests. In practice contests: 6-12.

Ben Roethlisberger was abysmal in the 2005 preseason. All he did after that was--in Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Tom Brady fashion--efficiently direct the Pittsburgh Steelers to Super Bowl victory.

One of the biggest myths in successful sports gambling comes from the squares who claim sharp players don’t bet preseason football. Those who bet on sports for a living know accurate motivational and key player rotation information is obtainable.

However the actual results hold no value in beating the regular season NFL odds.  Even the Roethlisberger example showed focusing on key players will often result in false positives or negatives.

A comparable player at a comparable point in his career is a good example.  Arizona is a great candidate to be this year’s Cinderella. It call comes down to how far their young signal caller Matt Leinart has progressed.

What can we deduce from his mixed preseason performance? Sports wagering NFL experts will tell you, “nothing”. 

Joe Duffy, CEO of, is enemy No. 1 at the sports books.  His premium plays and expert advice can be had there as part of sports service GodsPicks.

Tuesday MLB Sports Betting News and Notes

Here are Tuesday’s baseball betting news and notes from the private clipboard of the top baseball handicappers at  

Devil Rays-Orioles

Tampa’s Jason Hammel has a 10.42 ERA in the month of August. However, he faces an Orioles team that has lost six straight. Daniel Cabrera is 6-0 lifetime to Tampa with a 2.90 ERA.


Cleveland’s Jake Westbrook has been a sensational fantasy baseball pitcher as of late, sporting a 1.50 ERA in his last 36 innings. World class handicapper Stevie Vincent, one of the top experts, notes that Kason Gabbard has great splits numbers.  Texas has won all six of his home starts and his home ERA is 2.38 with a .912 WHIP.


The Halos Jeff Weaver is what master sports handicapper Joe Duffy likes to call “predictably unpredictable”. He’s allowed one run or less in 20 starts, but six or more in seven trips to the hill.


Cincinnati enters this double-header with the longest winning streak in MLB at eight games.


Philadelphia southpaw Adam Eaton has been abysmal all year as his 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP dictates.  Fresh off the DL, he takes on the first-place Mets in a relative “must win” for the Phillies. Surprisingly, Eaton has a 5-0 lifetime record to the Mets with a 1.89 ERA.

The Phillies are winless in 12 games as a home underdog in 2007.


Florida is ice cold, losing 9-of-11. The Braves send future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz to the hill off of consecutive wins in which he’s pitched 18 innings combined and given up just four runs. Smoltz is 13-6 career to the Marlins with a 2.70 ERA.

Florida is 1-15 for -16.8 units this year when their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less in their previous 10 games.


Red hot Rich Hill totes the mound for Chicago.  Over his last two starts he’s given up three runs with a 17-3 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brew Crew are 4-16 -15.5 their last 20 to teams that average .9 or less homeruns per game.


Washington’s Jason Bergmann makes his first start in more than a month.

For premium sports service winners, go to  

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Sunday Computer Trends

Sunday, August 26, 2007

What are the biggest sports service plays in the industry? gives you only the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. You literally have the power of 620 sports services behind every selection 


·        Erik Bedard is 0-4 to Minnesota

·        Vicente Padilla is 1-5 to Seattle

·        The Yankees are 10-18 this year -18.8 units after three straight games committing no errors

·        Minnesota is 4-14 this year -14 units if they are 4-1 their last five

·        Washington has gone under 25-7 this year to teams that strand 7.5 or more runners

·        Toronto has gone under 32-10 to teams that strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base

GodsTips 7-3 Saturday, 4-1 Wise Guy Plays; 6-0 Today NFL +MLB

Sunday, August 26, 2007


The Center of the Handicapping Universe continues to prove to be the Industry Standard in sports betting.  We go 7-3 last night including 4-1 with Wise Guy plays: Texans, Padres, Reds and Giants (MLB). We have a Dandy Dog Wise Guy among two WG plays.  We have the Eagles-Steelers side.  It’s at least six winners in all.

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ARIZONA (PETIT +105) Cubs (Marquis)

Going against teams averaging .9 or fewer home runs per game against a pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last three starts is 332-232 +110.3. True Petit has been roughed up, but incredibly this is only his second home start.  He has seven on the highway. 

Arizona is 12-6 at home, their last 18 while they’ve also beaten the Cubs 12-of-17.


Friday, August 24, 2007

Saturday NFLX Tailgate Party News and Notes

Saturday, August 25, 2007


You get information like this updated all football season long at the Tailgate Party on  


Associated Press

Houston is drastically improved at WR. A year after struggling to find healthy receivers to complement Johnson, the Texans have so much depth at the position that free agent Robert Ferguson passed on playing for his hometown team because he thought he’d get more playing time in Minnesota. “It’s amazing. Last year we knew it was an issue. We talked about it and how we had to get better,” Kubiak said. “The reason it got better really is because of work habits and giving young players a chance to get it done. You start to put that all together and it’s a deeper, more well-conditioned group.” In their two preseason victories, the defensive starters didn’t allow a touchdown against Denver or Super Bowl champion Indianapolis. Denver’s first-team offense went 0-for-5 on third-down conversions. Some Broncos even grumbled afterward that Dallas blitzed too much for a preseason game. After the Cowboys’ first practice this week since beating Denver, the good-natured Phillips wasn’t even prompted when he cracked that the team “decided to put in a blitz this week since we hadn’t had any.” Dallas plays at Houston on Saturday night, when the starters are expected to play into the second half. When asked Wednesday what differed about the “Phillips 3-4” from other three-man fronts, the grinning coach responded, “Beside being better?”

Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Pokes WR Terry Glenn is out. Cowboys first team defense has not allowed a TD.


Associated Press

Even Erasmus James knows he’s not back yet. The defensive end, and former first-round draft pick, will return to the field for the first time in nearly a year on Saturday when the Minnesota Vikings play at Seattle. The Minnesota defense sorely missed James last season. He tore ligaments in his left knee against Carolina in Week 2, and the Vikings never were able to put sustained pressure on the quarterback, a big reason they had the worst pass defense in the NFL.

Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Seahawks starters will play into the third quarter, though QB Matt Hasselbeck is very unlikely to play that long, perhaps he may not play at all.  However head coach Mike Holmgrem is livid over his team’s whitewashing, a 48-14 loss to Green Bay and promises to “fix it.”


Associated Press

Quarterback Jon Kitna’s status for the Detroit Lions’ third preseason game remained uncertain. The third preseason game typically features the starting unit. Kitna took every regular-season snap in 2006, led the NFL in completions (372) and was second in attempts (596). Both were career bests and team records. The 11-year veteran’s 4,208 yards were second only to Scott Mitchell’s 4,338 on Detroit’s single-season list. Dan Orlovsky, one of two quarterbacks fighting for the backup job, is doubtful for Saturday’s game with a turf toe injury suffered Aug. 18 at Cleveland. He has not taken part in drills since the game. And Detroit lost rookie Drew Stanton, the first of two second-round picks, to a knee injury early in camp. Journeyman J.T. O’Sullivan and rookie Phil Horvath have taken all the practice snaps since Kitna left practice Tuesday. Horvath, a free agent who played last season at Northern Illinois, joined the team Tuesday.

Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Colts starters will play 35-45 plays, their most extensive work of the preseason


Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Ravens cornerback Samari Rolle and wide receiver Mark Clayton are out.  Ravens will plays starters “as long as we need to get a rhythm”.  Skins QB Jason Campbell is doubtful.  Mark Brunell starts, followed by Todd Collins.

Associated Press

Rolle and Clayton are among several Ravens battling injuries heading into their preseason game at Washington on Saturday night. Defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (swollen knee) and rookie outside linebacker Antwan Barnes (right high-ankle sprain) are expected to be gametime decisions. Tight end Daniel Wilcox (left ankle sprain) and running back P.J. Daniels (hamstring) returned to practice Thursday morning, but won’t play against the Redskins. The Ravens will start second-year cornerback David Pittman in Rolle’s place against the Redskins, and Demetrius Williams in place of Clayton. Nose guard Kelly Gregg, who has missed the majority of the preseason with knee and thigh injuries, is slated to play at least a few snaps.

Washington Post

Veteran Todd Collins will replace injured starting quarterback Jason Campbell for the Washington Redskins tomorrow against Baltimore, Coach Joe Gibbs said yesterday. Mark Brunell is set to be the No. 2 quarterback in the preseason finale next week if Campbell returns. Linebackers Khary Campbell and H.B. Blades will fill in for injured linebacker Marcus Washington (elbow) tomorrow. . . . Tailback Clinton Portis (knee) and tackle Chris Samuels (knee) are out, with tackle/guard Todd Wade (shoulder) questionable.


Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Fins offense may get extended playing time to adjust to coach Cam Cameron’s offense.


Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Niners starters may play a half or into the third quarter depending on the number of snaps. Bears coach Lovie Smith believes the team is the deepest he’s had.

SF Gate

49ers star running back Frank Gore will not play the rest of the preseason. Other 49ers who will not play in Chicago are defensive tackle Bryant Young (back), safety Dashon Goldson (elbow), wide receiver C. J. Brewer (knee) and nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin.

Chicago Sun-Times

While defensive tackle Tommie Harris’ status for the Bears’ game Saturday against San Francisco remains a mystery wrapped inside an enigma, left offensive tackle John Tait will start after skipping the first two preseason games. Wide receivers Muhsin Muhammad (general soreness) and Brandon Rideau (right ankle) were held out of practice. Rideau is not expected to play Saturday. Also out were offensive tackle John St. Clair (shoulder) and defensive lineman Israel Idonije (ankle).


Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Browns start Charlie Frye at QB followed by Derek Anderson.  Brady Quinn and Ken Dorsey will play, but playing time is not specified. 


Cy McCormick, Professional Gambler   

Chargers starters, sans LaDainian Tomlinson, will play into the third quarter—roughly 40 snaps. Arizona QB Matt Leinart plays the first half, Kurt Warner will play the third quarter.

NY Jets-NY Giants

NY Times

With NYG TE Jeremy Shockey out and with his backup, Darcy Johnson, out for the season with a knee injury, the Giants have been short on tight ends at camp. QB Jared Lorenzen (concussion) ran the scout team yesterday and won’t play tomorrow night. “We didn’t plan on playing Jared, to be honest with you,” Coughlin said. Anthony Wright and Tim Hasselbeck will follow Eli Manning at QB in the second half. Coughlin said Lorenzen will play “a lot” in the preseason finale at New England on Thursday night.

Friday Computer Trends

Friday, August 24, 2007

MLB Live Odds, MLB Game Report, MLB Injuries, Sports Data Bases MLB Matchups, Stat Fox MLB Matchups are at  


·        Roger Clemens has a 23-11 lifetime mark to Detroit

·        Josh Beckett is 15-5 for the year with a 3.15 ERA

·        Washington is a stunning 44-28 this year +31.6 units with a total of 9.9.5

·        The Dodgers are 1-16 the last two years in the second half to a team with a .540-.620 winning %

·        Dontrelle Willis is 4-1 to Cincinnati lifetime with a 2.44 ERA

·        Brad Penny is 5-10 to the LA Dodgers

·        Florida is 1-11-12.7 to teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.00 or less over their last 10 games

·        Greg Maddux is 27-17 lifetime to Philadelphia

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Wednesday Computer Trends

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

All professional handicappers are proud to show off the amount of research that goes into a pick.  If a handicapper gives you no rationale, rest assured you just paid for a coin flip.  Get accurate analysis for every pick at


·        Paul Byrd is 7-2 career to Detroit

·        Andy Pettitte is 11-6 lifetime to Los Angeles Anaheim

·        Carlos Silva has a 4-1 mark to Seattle 2.66 ERA

·        Daniel Cabrera is 1-5 to Texas with a 5.73 ERA

·        Washington is 43-27 this year +31.4 units when the total is 9-9.5

·        Arizona is 38-19 +20.7 units this year following an over

·        Cincinnati over 31-10 this year to opponent that strike out seven or more times this year

Monday, August 20, 2007

Tuesday Computer Trends

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

What are the biggest sports service plays in the industry? gives you only the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. You literally have the power of 620 sports services behind every selection 


·        Erik Bedard is 3-1 lifetime to Texas with a 2.48 ERA

·        Mike Mussina has a 15-8 career record to the Angels with a 3.48 ERA

·        Dave Bush is 3-0 lifetime to Arizona

·        Elmer Dessens is 3-6 to Pittsburgh

·        Washington is 41-27 +28.9 units this year when the total is 9-9.5

·        Arizona is 40-21 +19.8 units virtual pick ‘em games (line 125 or less either way)

·        Detroit is 8-16 this year at home to the division

·        In the second half of the year, Dustin McGowan has a 3.33 ERA and .222 batting average against



Monday Computer Trends

Monday, August 20, 2007

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·        Daniel Cabrera is 1-5 career to Texas

·        Mark Buehrle 16-6 lifetime to KC

·        Tim Wakefield 18-2 to Tampa career with a 2.83 ERA

·        Russ Ortiz is 9-5 to Florida

·        Cincinnati has gone over 29-10 opponent strikes out seven or more times per game

·        Toronto has gone under 40-14 this year v. teams w/losing record

·        Kansas City is 18-10 +18.6 this year off five or more road games

Monday GodsTips

Monday, August 20, 2007


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SEATTLE (RAMIREZ +140) Minnesota (Garza)

Among the many reasons systems have made you and I a lot of money over the years is quality computer programs, even data mining ones, are phenomenal in finding patters to when slumping teams (or in baseball pitchers) end their slumps or hot teams/pitchers end their hot streak.

Such is the case with this system that says this is the type of circumstance in which Horacio Ramirez ends his skid. Going against teams averaging .9 or fewer home runs per game against a pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or higher over his last three starts is 329-230 +109 units.

Seattle is hitting .300 last seven games. They are in fact hitting a sensational .325 as a team this month.

Sunday, August 19, 2007

NFL Specialist Builds on 72 Percent NFL Torrid Run

Sunday, August 19, 2007


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CINCINNATI (HARANG -115) Milwaukee (Capuano)

First let’s look at the pitching matchup. Aaron Harang has one of the best road WHIPs in MLB at 1.176 and it’s 1.141 overall. Over his last four starts it’s a stunning .731. The Reds are 10-2 +10.2 units in his starts.

Simply put, Chris Capuano has been the worst pitcher in all of MLB since mid-June.  Milwaukee has lost his last 15 starts -19.1 units. He’s getting worse.  Over his last four starts his ERA is 8.27. His WHIP is 1.935 in that span.

Milwaukee is 9-19 their last 26.



Saturday, August 18, 2007

Saturday Computer Trends

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Get live NFL preseason betting odds, plus NFL matchups from SportsDatabases, the famed Tailgate Party with exclusive news and notes, NFL gambling game previews and more to win your online football gambling bets.


·        Steve Trachsel is 5-0 to Toronto with a 2.95 ERA

·        Roger Clemens is 22-11 lifetime to Detroit

·        Arizona has gone under 29-6 on the road this year with a total of 8.5-10

·        Anthony Reyes is 0-4 to the Cubs

·        Roy Oswalt is 7-1 lifetime to San Diego

·        San Francisco is 2-15 with Cain at night this year

·        Atlanta has gone over 24-11 this year in the second half

Friday, August 17, 2007

Rampant Speculation Abounds In Donaghygate

Joe Duffy (

Everyone, this author included, has theories on the precise details of how rebel NBA ref Tim Donaghy may have affected the outcome of games in which he officiated. Theories by definition are conjecture.  They need only be plausible using the known facts. Even reasonable suppositions may not prove to be 100 percent correct.

There are many rational hypotheses on the scandal and then again, there is other guesswork that can easily have holes poked through it. There are a small number of postulators who, to their credit, have been able to gravy train this scandal into purporting themselves as gambling experts. Unfortunately, to the more seasoned and authentic authorities in sports gambling, too often the notions of the squeakier wheels may get the oil even if the views rarely hold water.

At the very least the more seasoned are much less apt to scream proof in the crowded theatre of nattering nabobs.  The USA Today’s Danny Sheridan correctly observes, “You can make all kind of cases with numbers. But if you have the exact games, then it’s like black and white.”

As an example, an “expert” often quoted on asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread.  Does ESPN use a fact checker?  According the game log as published on that same, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.

Thanks for proving the oddsmakers are adept, damn savvy in fact.  Any two bit gambler was aware of this bombshell.  To embellish on a line from the Simpson’s, it seems to me a rather obvious find from a rather mediocre genius.   This discovery was classic dog bites man though some gullible media saps bought it hook, line and sinker as man bites dog.

If even a higher percentage of games were going down to the pointspread wire with Donaghy, this would be evidence that he likely did not, repeat not affect the outcome.  How anyone could imply the opposite is beyond me.

However, if a forensic statistician found that Donaghy had the highest percentage of games that were not even close to the pointspread, that would be a potential straw in the wind unlike the polar opposite (non) finding.

But wait, the “betting expert” has all his bases covered.  He found that in games Donaghy officiated in 2007, the average number of points was 13 point higher than the average posted total.

So the “smoking gun” is too many games were too close to the pointspread, but then again, the other smoking gun is that too many over/unders were not close to the pointspread. The ghost of Joe McCarthy lives and the legacy of Mike Nifong thrive.

The so-called gambling experts seem to be missing the point, though cynics will tell you the only point is that the worst publicity is no publicity for wannabes. After all, no purported conclusive evidence means no real story and no media exposure.

Granted, we still do not know every detail, and perhaps never will regarding the Tim Donaghy scandal. However, from what we have seen so far, it appears point shaving was likely not as commonplace and may not even be part of the criminal allegations against him.

We do know for a fact that he supplied “inside information”. As a gambler who handicaps games legitimately,  I can assure you that we are always, always looking for an “edge”—any and all major advantages—over the long-run.  Getting “inside information” does not mean we bet the mortgage on a particular sporting event, but it can increase our long-term winning percentage.

Examples are the injury status of a key player.  Shaquille O’Neal, Dwayne Wade and Pau Gasol are instances of star players whose game time status was often uncertain to the gambler.  However, Donaghy would have access to unpublished injury information, the type of privy data that would give a gambler a huge upper hand.

As another example, perhaps a team was playing five contests in seven nights and their flight into town was delayed four hours, they got to town at 11:00 A.M. on game day.  Knowing when situations like this occur would also provide bettors with a huge edge.

Simply “if”, any player, coach or ref were involved in point shaving, it is highly doubtful if his chicanery would result in the final scores being disproportionately close to the spread.  It would be quite the opposite. 

So of the two bodies of evidence thrown against the wall by the err “betting expert,” one that says too many games were close to the number and the other that says too many games were not close to the number, the latter is much more likely to stick.

My educated estimation, based on what I heard so far, is that Donaghy supplied the gamblers version of “insider trading” as illustrated above.  Game day unpublished information would be the holy grail for sharp players, and it appears that is exactly what Donaghy supplied.

When the specific contests that Donaghy bet on comes out, of course an inordinate percentage will be in matches he officiated.  The Johnny-come-lately experts will scream there is the damning evidence they knew was coming.

Not so fast.  Of course Donaghy is going to have access to inside information on a game when he’s already on site.  How can he do undercover work on a matchup that is 400 miles from his own two eyes and ears?

While even those of us who refuse to jump to rash conclusions will appropriately muse, “How could he possibly be objective in a game in which he has five dimes riding?” this is far from proof that he consciously influenced the outcome.

Don’t get me wrong, Donaghy is clearly guilty of going well over the line of any and all codes of conduct, but I am quite confident those hell bent in proving a made-for-television conspiracy will only continue to make  leaps of faith that may not be backed by the evidence.  A scenario in which he acquired inside information on games other those he was to officiate would be a shocking turn of events to the true “betting experts”.

Reasonable speculation is human nature.  Salacious gossip backed merely by fuzzy math is irresponsible. proves to be the worldwide leader in tittle-tattle.

Joe Duffy is CEO of  He has written hundreds of articles on sports gaming, published on many of the top websites and in leading publications around the world and has been an expert guest on several national radio shows including Sporting News Network.


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