Over the years I’ve heard a common faulty theory regurgitated when either a game has a large pointspread or even more commonplace when a contest involves two teams that play opposite tempos. It entails an if-then-else statement in which both the side and total are essentially handicapped jointly.
“If you like the big favorite you have to like the over, but if you like the big dog, you have to like the under,” the myth goes. Even more humdrum is “If you like the up-tempo team to cover, you have to like the over,” and I’m sure you can figure out what follows.
In a classic illustration, I saw this drivel rear its ugly head on gambling posting boards before the Spurs-Suns series. Phoenix of course plays the chaotic full-court style where the shot clock is almost irrelevant. The Spurs play a classic half-court style where shots are generally taken with the shot clock at single digits. Even the newspaper hacks and talking heads on television recited the groupthink that a fast-paced game would benefit the Suns and a slow-paced game would be to the advantage of the Spurs.
Game 5 between San Antonio and Phoenix ended with the side being a push. For our purpose, that’s convenient because that was the now infamous game in which the Suns Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended, hence from a handicapping standpoint, the results should be thrown out.
Of the remaining five games, San Antonio won and covered three of them. All three went over the total. Phoenix won and covered two, both of which went under the total. All five results, of course, went against the conventional so-called logic.
This is consistent with my observations over the years. Unless there is a push, there are four possible combinations of a side and total: Team A and the under, Team A and the over, Team B and the under and Team B and the over. Random chance suggests the if-then-else fairy tale has a 50 percent chance of being right because it says of the possible four combinations it will likely be one of two possibilities. My educated observations says every time I hear this theory espoused, one of the two alleged to be likely combinations hits less than 50 percent of the time.
I always handicap sides and totals as separate entities. If anything, based on experience, I feel more comfortable if I pick the ball control team to cover and the over, or the fast-paced team and the under.
The domino effect of course is not going to be as overwhelming as the Suns-Spurs series illustrates, but that example is closer to the rule than the exception.
A big believer in contrarian handicapping, as explained in previous articles, I can’t say there is necessarily such an angle here. But the invaluable lesson is to not inhibit handicapping by subscribing to the popular fallacy.
Here is the if-then-else truth for sports bettors. If you rid of the aforesaid robotic fairy tale, then your chances of winning are much greater.
Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com which now has the best free sports gambling match-ups, free picks, databases and more.
