Joe Duffy (OffshoreInsiders.com)
Often spending 15 hours per day in front of this computer, I do listen to a lot of sports radio stations around the country via the magic of streaming audio. Every Monday, Friday and Saturday, I am entertained by so-called handicappers, "Vegas legends" and other mercenaries. The various pitchmen purchase infomercial segments peddling their weekly "opportunity of a lifetime".
A handful of the touts do supply worthwhile information, but most of the shows, to quote politico William Gibbs, consists of an "an army of pompous phrases moving across the landscape in search of an idea." It's a weekly echo chamber of how many ways the huckster tries to sway listeners into believers. "You have to know which teams are coming to play and which are not" generally followed by a strange segue comparing football teams to horses, race cars or other generic talking points.
However, the one recurring specific assertion makes me cringe because the boiler room tout is exploiting a myth with the intent of separating fools from their money.
It's the fairy-tale where the canned script claims that with about 60 or so college and pro football games they find "one game" in which "information so strong" comes in." Of course "when an opportunity this strong ("strong" seems to be a favorite word of the scamdicappers) lands on your lap, you have to simply unload on this game." As luck would have it, that week's treasure chest just so happens to fall on the same day the paid announcement is scheduled to broadcast.
The "unload on this one game" fool's gold could not be further detached from reality. Like we said in reference to the Tim Donaghy scandal, sharp players look to get information (not necessarily the vague claims of "inside" information) that will give them an edge over a span of hundreds of bets.
This is the No. 1 reason the NCAA should be concerned about Texas A&M coach Dennis Francione's secret newsletter. "Getting accurate injury information before the oddsmakers acquire it would increase any decent sports bettor's winning percentage by 6-8 percentage points" says Mike Godsey, Senior Handicapper of GodsTips.com. He admits that estimate errs on the conservative side.
Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com agrees if "every coach published a secret newsletter, professional gamblers would annihilate the sportsbooks."
But contrary to what the boiler room touts want you to believe, Vincent and Godsey are not referring to "betting the mortgage" on any single game or a small number of games, but hitting 60-plus percent of hundreds of bets per year.
Between having been the GM of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, I've gotten dozens of inquiries from handicappers who wanted to be part of said networks. I always demand at least a week's worth of writing samples before they are even given consideration.
Frankly this caveat weeds out about 95 percent of applicants. If the aspiring candidate does not supply analysis that convinces me that the handicapper has insight that few bettors possess, he has zero chance of ever being on a site in which I am the decider.
My credo is that all established professional handicappers are proud to show off the amount of research that goes into a bet. If a handicapper gives you no rationale, rest assured you just paid for a coin flip.
Many claim to have "information" such as the previously referenced newest wave of radio touts. Those who actually can supply the privy and precise scoop will document their claims with specifics of what their knowledge actually is. Otherwise it's all propaganda.
Again, the golden rule is no matter how invaluable the lowdown proves to be, any upper hand will pay off long-term. This is no "bail out game". Excluding pushes, even the preeminent gamblers will lose four out of every 10 bets.
Perhaps the biggest difference between the professional gambler and the degenerate is that the elite bettors measure success by the month, year and decade. Losing 40 percent of their bets has to be the cost of doing business. The deadbeat meanwhile falls prey to any clown with a sales pitch and an 800 number.
Luckily for radio sales people and bookmakers, so many rainbow chasers continue to choose the latter.
Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and lead handicapper of GodsTips on said site. His picks are always backed by specific rationale as to why you too should bet his plays.
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