Sports betting sharps are divided on the AFC South for 2010. Is it an exciting division full of competitive teams, at least two of which should reach the postseason? Or is it a one-horse race as always?
HOUSTON TEXANS
NFL futures odds: +350
Are the Houston Texans football's most maddening franchise? Every year is supposedly "the year" Houston finally breaks into contention. But it never happens. The Glass Half Full types will talk up what should be a vaunted running game this year, as it will feature Ben Tate and Arian Foster to mix in with Steve Slaton. But the truth is that the running game may not make that much of an impact since the Texans were already fourth in the league in total offense in 2009. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were arguably the league's best quarterback-receiver connection last year.
I think the "D" needs to take another step forward for Houston to become a playoff team. On paper, it was a middle-of-the-pack unit last year, but it crumbled late in games. Also, stud linebacker Brian Cushing will miss the first four games of the year due to a suspension, meaning Mario Williams will have to do a lot on his own. All in all I'm not quite convinced the Texans have improved over last year's roster enough to win 10 or 11 games.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
NFL futures odds: -160
I don't have to be nearly as long-winded with Indy. We know the Colts are still the team to beat in this division. Peyton Manning's receiving corps is the deepest he's ever had, with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie supporting Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark beautifully. Anthony Gonzalez is also back in the mix and Joseph Addai may hold off Donald Brown in the backfield again because of his pass catching.
Indy still struggles against the run but it defends the pass well and will score a ton. Double digit wins make sense once again.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
NFL futures odds: +1000
The Jags aren't cannon fodder in the mold of Buffalo or Cleveland but they're definitely the rebuilding team in the AFC South. Offensively, they're not in horrible shape. David Garrard can bounce back and protect the ball better if his O-line does a better job protecting him; it allowed 44 sacks last year. Maurice Jones-Drew is a superstar even running behind a suspect line.
Defensively, the Jags were kittens last season. Their 14 sacks were absolutely pathetic. But they should have more teeth after signing Aaron Kampmann and drafting Tyson Alualu. At this stage, a .500 season would be an accomplishment, but the Jags have better days to come.
TENNESSEE TITANS
NFL futures odds: +350
After their horrific start to the season, the Tennessee Titans were a force in the second half of 2009, with Vince Young and the dynamic Chris Johnson leading the way with their fleet feet. NFL betting fans have to wonder, though, if VY can deliver now that the pressure is back on. And this team still struggles mightily against the pass in a division that features Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub. I still see too many chinks in Tennessee's armor for it to make the big dance.
Betting pick: Houston may finally break through – next year. I expect more of the same in the AFC South for one more season. Pick the Colts.
