Here are five names on my radar – some because they have a shot to win and some because they'll be worth watching no matter what.
Phil Mickelson (+1215)
WHY HE WILL WIN: Lefty is one of those guys you could justify picking every week. It's not that he's consistent; it's actually quite the opposite. You never know when he'll get hot, so it's just a matter of guess work with Phil. It wouldn't be insane for a sports betting sharp to "guess" on a four-time major champion.
WHY HE WON'T WIN: Do you want to take a stab in the dark or make an educated guess? The smart money says to stay away from Mickelson since his game isn't where it needs to be. He struggled down the stretch at Firestone last week.
Rory McIlroy (+1615)
WHY HE WILL WIN: McIlroy has plenty going for him this week. The PGA's host course for 2010, The Straits Course at Whistling Straights, requires a versatile skill set. McIlroy is a long hitter but he also has some finesse to his game. He was ninth in putting at Firestone last week.
WHY HE WON'T WIN: He flew out of the gate at the British Open but lost the lead almost as quickly as he gained it. He may not quite be mature enough to play 72 effective holes in a major championship yet.
Tiger Woods (+1615)
WHY HE WILL WIN: As poorly as Tiger's played this season, he's saved his best efforts for the majors. He finished fourth at the Masters, fourth at the U.S. Open and 23rd at the British Open.
WHY HE WON'T WIN: The 2010 Tiger is not the Tiger we knew. It's nice to see that almost every sportsbook has mercifully lowered its odds significantly for the first time since....he was an amateur? I don't think his head will be right until 2011. Tiger isn't done but I doubt he'll be himself at any point this season.
Hunter Mahan (+3850)
WHY HE WILL WIN: No major championship betting list is complete without the previous week's winner. Hunter Mahan was a force at Firestone; maybe he can keep the momentum going.
WHY HE WON'T WIN: What if Mahan's win last week was a fluke? In his six tournaments before that, Mahan had four missed cuts, a 37th-place finish and a 17th-place finish.
Jeff Overton (+6050)
WHY HE WILL WIN: It's fun to include a deep sleeper on the list and Overton fits the bill. He enters the PGA with four consecutive top-11 finishes. Last week, he cracked the field's top 10 in birdies, putting and greens.
WHY HE WON'T WIN: Overton is a borderline no-name. It wouldn't be unfair to assume he'd crumble under pressure with a lead on Sunday. We just don't know much about the guy's mental makeup yet.
Had you heard of Graeme McDowell or Luis Oosthuizen before they won majors earlier this year? First-time winners seem to be the trend of late. For that reason, I suggest swinging for the fences with Jeff Overton. He pays at better than 60 to 1.
