March Madness isn't just the most thrilling event in college basketball—it’s also a goldmine for savvy sports bettors. Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament is where chaos meets opportunity. With 32 games over two days, bettors have ample chances to exploit soft lines, public overreactions, and overlooked underdogs. Here's how to approach betting Round 1 with a sharp eye.
1. Fade the Public Darlings
Every year, certain teams become trendy upset picks. When a double-digit seed gets hyped by the media, casual bettors tend to pile on. But oddsmakers adjust quickly. Often, the value ends up on the opposite side—betting the favorite or looking elsewhere.
Pro Tip: When everyone is on the same underdog, it’s no longer a sleeper—it’s a trap.
2. Target Mid-Majors with Experience and Cohesion
Upsets aren’t random—they’re usually authored by mid-major teams with senior-laden lineups, great guard play, and strong three-point shooting. These teams often fly under the radar but thrive under pressure.
Look for:
- High KenPom offensive efficiency
- Turnover-averse guards
- 3-point heavy offenses
Betting Angle: These teams are great ATS (against the spread) plays, especially when catching +5 to +9 points.
3. Don't Overreact to Conference Strength
Yes, the Big Ten or SEC may seem "tougher" than the MAC or Mountain West, but don’t blindly bet on big-conference teams. Tournament success is often about matchups, not pedigree. A high seed from a power conference could be overvalued due to inflated metrics from a rugged schedule.
4. Analyze Pace and Matchups
Pace is crucial. If a fast-paced underdog faces a slow, methodical favorite, the game can become uncomfortable for the higher seed. Teams that thrive in transition and can shoot from deep are perfect candidates to cover or pull the upset at the top sportsbooks
Tools: Use sites like KenPom, Haslametrics, or Torvik to compare tempo and efficiency.
5. Pay Attention to Travel and Scheduling
- Proximity: A lower seed playing close to home may have a "quasi-home" crowd.
- Time Zones: East Coast teams playing late games out West can struggle.
- Short Rest: Some conference tournament runners-up may have tired legs and emotional letdowns.
6. Underdog Moneyline Sprinkles
While betting the spread is safer, adding a little on the moneyline of +250 to +500 underdogs can pay big. Upsets happen every year—at least one 13- or 14-seed wins outright almost every tournament.
March Madness isn't just the most thrilling event in college basketball—it’s also a goldmine for savvy sports bettors. Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament is where chaos meets opportunity. With 32 games over two days, bettors have ample chances to exploit soft lines, public overreactions, and overlooked underdogs. Here's how to approach betting Round 1 with a sharp eye.
1. Fade the Public Darlings
Every year, certain teams become trendy upset picks. When a double-digit seed gets hyped by the media, casual bettors tend to pile on. But oddsmakers adjust quickly. Often, the value ends up on the opposite side—betting the favorite or looking elsewhere.
Pro Tip: When everyone is on the same underdog, it’s no longer a sleeper—it’s a trap.
2. Target Mid-Majors with Experience and Cohesion
Upsets aren’t random—they’re usually authored by mid-major teams with senior-laden lineups, great guard play, and strong three-point shooting. These teams often fly under the radar but thrive under pressure.
Look for:
- High KenPom offensive efficiency
- Turnover-averse guards
- 3-point heavy offenses
Betting Angle: These teams are great ATS (against the spread) plays, especially when catching +5 to +9 points.
3. Don't Overreact to Conference Strength
Yes, the Big Ten or SEC may seem "tougher" than the MAC or Mountain West, but don’t blindly bet on big-conference teams. Tournament success is often about matchups, not pedigree. A high seed from a power conference could be overvalued due to inflated metrics from a rugged schedule.
4. Analyze Pace and Matchups
Pace is crucial. If a fast-paced underdog faces a slow, methodical favorite, the game can become uncomfortable for the higher seed. Teams that thrive in transition and can shoot from deep are perfect candidates to cover or pull the upset.
Tools: Use sites like KenPom, Haslametrics, or Torvik to compare tempo and efficiency.
5. Pay Attention to Travel and Scheduling
- Proximity: A lower seed playing close to home may have a "quasi-home" crowd.
- Time Zones: East Coast teams playing late games out West can struggle.
- Short Rest: Some conference tournament runners-up may have tired legs and emotional letdowns.
6. Underdog Moneyline Sprinkles
While betting the spread is safer, adding a little on the moneyline of +250 to +500 underdogs can pay big. Upsets happen every year—at least one 13- or 14-seed wins outright almost every tournament.
7. Line Movement and Sharp Action
Watch the market. If a line moves 1–2 points without public consensus driving it, sharp money is likely involved. For example, a 12-seed moving from +7 to +5.5 despite 60% of bets on the favorite is a red flag—and worth your attention.
Resource: Use betting splits and live odds tracking sites like Action Network or Vegas Insider.
8. Emotional Angles: Beware the Letdown and Revenge Spots
- Teams that won their conference tourney on a buzzer-beater or emotional run may have a flat Round 1.
- Veteran-laden teams with last year’s heartbreak can come in focused and motivated.
Final Thoughts
Round 1 is the best chance for sports bettors to find value before the market tightens in later rounds. The combination of public overreaction, unfamiliar matchups, and massive volume creates an ideal setting for bettors who do their homework.
Focus on matchups, ignore the hype, and trust the metrics—not the madness.
