Saturday, October 18, 2008

Top All-Time NFL Betting Service With AFC GOY Sunday

Yet again the top sports betting expert makes you a fortune Saturday. GodsTips has all but clinched yet another winning week in football as we are 11-6 so far including 4-2 with Wise Guy plays: TCU, SMU, Arkansas, and Kansas. All we do is win and we are beyond excited about NBA season.

Last year GodsTips nails AFC, NFC, NFL and Moneyline NFL Games of the Year. What else is new? Already nine winning weeks in this year in 11 tries going back to preseason, get the AFC Game of the Year among five NFL winners Sunday up now. Click now to purchase

Simply put, if you are betting without the advice of GodsTips led by Joe Duffy and Mike Godsey, we can only thank you for keeping the bookmakers in business for the rest of us.

Below is a sample of what you get on every report as this is the premium report of predominately winners from Saturday collegiate football.

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play.  Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. We always urge line shopping to compliment the sharpest plays in the world and release plays as early as possible to ensure more success. Often our plays are released before most sportsbooks have lines up.  If we released plays later in the day, it would allow us to shop for better lines than we are able to post.  But we are more concerned about YOU being able to shop for better lines.  Be aware that in many cases better lines will be available than the ones we post.

Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above.  While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections.  Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.

In MLB, because so many systems are pitcher specific, please note it is now our policy to always specify pitchers unless otherwise noted.

CFB

Wise Guy…

ARKANSAS +7.5 Kentucky

We are tempted to go with Arkansas on the moneyline as going against home teams with a winning record off a loss is +97.1 units on the moneyline.

Arkansas has three losses, but all were to Top 5 teams in back to back to back weeks.

Kentucky has beaten just one good team all year and that was Louisville in August.

Kentucky's offense is very unimpressive averaging 4.0 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.2 and 5.1 yards per pass to 6.0.

Arkansas has faced the 11th toughest schedule compared to 44 to Kentucky.

The Wildcats mirror the Auburn team that Arkansas beat last week, in some ways, but no coaches have been fired this week.

Kentucky has a great defense, struggles on offense because of a lack of a proven quarterback and is expected to win.

Dicky Lyons, the Wildcats only real weapon is out. Lyons, 33 catches for 264 yards, has exactly the same catches as Kentucky's next best two receivers, running back Derrick

Locke and wide receiver/quarterback Randall Cobb, combined. Lyons also averaged 12.4 yards per punt return before sidelined for the season with torn knee ligaments during last Saturday's 24-17 loss to South Carolina in Lexington.

Also the Wildcats have had good fortune this year, which is tough to maintain.

Kentucky's defense has netted 16 turnovers in six games. The Cats recovered two fumbles and one pick against Alabama and recovered two fumbles and picked off a pair of passes against South Carolina.

KANSAS +20 Oklahoma

 

Kansas only loss was by three points on the road to a very good USF squad. The ratings numbers don't show the line to be justified. Kansas gets .6 more yards per play than their opponents normally allow and .4 less yards per play on defense than their foes get. KU is 20-3 straight up their last 23, so they are a good team.

Kansas has righted the ship after its loss at South Florida this season, developing a run game that had been missing early on. Jake Sharp ran for a season-high 118 yards and three touchdowns last week against Colorado in the best performance this year by a Jayhawks running back.

The Jayhawks will be seeking their second straight win against a top 5 opponent, having beaten No. 5 Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.

We know Bob Stoops is perfect straight up in the week after the Red River Shootout, but this is a lot of points against a quality team.


GEORGIA -14.5 Vanderbilt

 

Oh we have had so much success fading teams once the glass slipper is off. The Commodores lost their first game last week, now for the first time all year play consecutive road games and it's against their toughest foe.

Vandy will for the first time this year get key yardage in the air, but they average 5.0 yards per pass against teams normally allowing 6.4.

Commodores have trailed in every game they've won, falling behind Auburn by 13 and

Ole Miss by 10. It finally bit them in the but, but now that UGA won't have their guard down, is better than any team the 'Dores faced, we see a big blowout.

Those who watch game films—and we subscribe to all of them, tell us UGA outmans

Vanderbilt everywhere. Now the other slipper comes off in blowout.

SMU +13.5 Houston

SMU is looking at each game as a building block and clearly is getting better. The Tulsa game gives you an idea how much they're hoping we get things turned around," said first year head coach June Jones. "In my eyes, we lost that game, and that's not good enough. As a fan and as an SMU person who has been watching for 22 years, I think they sense that it is going to be different, that it is going to change."

The most noticeable success has been in the Mustangs' passing offense, which is ranked No. 11 in the country (293.1 yards per game). Other units, however, entered the season with nowhere near the depth present at quarterback and receiver.

Those areas, particularly the running game, are finally showing improvement. SMU racked up 151 rushing yards against Tulsa, with sophomore Chris Butler leading the way with 95 yards on nine carries. Butler (leg) is likely to be out for the Houston game, but other running backs on the roster have turned the rushing game into more than an afterthought.

Though they are 1-6 straight up and 16 straight to Division I teams, they have covered 2-of-3 by double digits and the one exception was a .5 point spread setback.

The Mustangs are clearly in building block, moral victory mode. We call them covers.

Major…

UL LAFAYETTE -3 Arkansas State

Going against road team off home win to conference against a team off double digit win to the conference is 303-199 +84.1 units. The status of ULL QB Mike Desormeaux keeps this as a Major, though there are other key indicators that would make it a Wise Guy.

MICHIGAN STATE +3.5 Ohio State

Going against road team off home win to conference against a team off double digit win to the conference is 303-199 +84.1 units.

COLORADO -3.5 Kansas State

This is a competitor consensus.  If we do not have a lean towards one side but it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a "competitor consensus".

NEVADA -22.5 Utah State

 

This is a competitor consensus.  If we do not have a lean towards one side but it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a "competitor consensus".

RUTGERS +1 Connecticut

Our official outlaw line is Rutgers -3.5. The official outlaw line is what the odds would be if there was no consideration given to public perception and balancing the action.  It is the more accurate line from the standpoint of the bettor.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN +2 Western Michigan

Our official outlaw line is Central Michigan -3.5. The official outlaw line is what the odds would be if there was no consideration given to public perception and balancing the action.  It is the more accurate line from the standpoint of the bettor.

BUFFALO -11 Army

Our official outlaw line is -16. The official outlaw line is what the odds would be if there was no consideration given to public perception and balancing the action.  It is the more accurate line from the standpoint of the bettor.

IOWA -4 Wisconsin

This is one of the top sharp versus squares games.  That means most of the sharp money is going one way and most of the sucker money the other way according to our offshore, Vegas and "outlaw" contacts.  We go with the sharp money.

PURDUE +155 (Moneyline) Northwestern

Go against a home team off an straight up loss with a winning record is +97.1 units on the moneyline including +11.8 this year. Also when both teams are averaging 21-28 points per game on offense and the road team gave up and scored 17 or less the previous game, the road team is 25-7 +39.2 units. Again, your wallet considers that better than 100 percent.

BOSTON COLLEGE -2.5 Virginia Tech

This game illustrates why ratings are so much more accurate than rankings. Virginia Tech's success is because they average 175 yards rushing per game, but a closer look shows that they get just 3.8 yards per carry against teams normally allowing 4.2. Now they face a BC team that holds teams to .8 yards per rush below their normal average.

Overall they allow 4.2 yards per play to teams normally getting 4.7. Tech is actually below average on offense and on defense. They are a paper Hokie. BC is above average on both sides of the ball.

Even the rankings tells us that Tech is not as good as their record. The Hokies are ranked 107th nationally in total offense, averaging 292.8 yards per game, their lowest average since 1987, when Virginia Tech averaged 261.7 yards per game in Beamer's first season.

The Hokies' defense, which was ranked third, first, and second the last three seasons, is now ranked 35th, allowing an average of 314.3 yards per game.

Now they have two starters suffering season-ending injuries the last two games - rover back Davon Morgan (torn anterior cruciate ligament) and tailback Kenny Lewis (ruptured Achilles'). Morgan and Lewis were also the Hokies' primary kick returners. This is the youngest team Frank Beamer ever coached.

MLB

Major…

BOSTON (BECKETT +131) Tampa (Shields)

Boston has gotten all of the momentum and now has won eight straight in potentially elimination games. Tampa has lost 7-of-9 to Shields.

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