While many casual bettors skip preseason football, sharp handicappers know it's one of the best opportunities to beat the books. Why? Because oddsmakers can't rely on standard metrics like full-game stats or typical team power ratings—creating an edge for those who do their homework.
Here are the top strategies to crush NFL and college preseason betting, from Mike Godsey, advisor to the best NFL preseason betting service:
1️⃣ Focus on Coaching Tendencies
Some coaches treat preseason like a glorified practice. Others? They want to win every snap.
Look for:
Coaches with strong preseason ATS (Against The Spread) records.
First-year head coaches who may want to set the tone.
Veteran coaches like John Harbaugh, who consistently cover.
Pro Tip: Research past preseasons and note coaches who play starters longer or run aggressive game plans.
2️⃣ Quarterback Rotations Matter More Than Starters
Star players rarely play long. Instead, evaluate the depth chart, especially at QB.
You want:
Teams with QB battles = motivated backups.
Competent backup QBs with NFL experience (e.g., a second-stringer like Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew can dominate against 3rd-string defenses).
Avoid teams with rookies and fringe QBs learning on the fly.
3️⃣ Track Line Movement... but Fade Overreactions
Yes, sharp money can move lines, but in preseason, the public often chases stale news like a starter sitting.
Smart angle:
Fade massive line moves (2+ points), especially late, when the value is gone.
Bet early when a news nugget breaks (like a coach saying the starters will play a full half).
4️⃣ Injuries & Motivation
Preseason injuries pile up, and depth wins games.
Also factor in:
Teams breaking in new coordinators or learning new schemes tend to play harder.
Teams on a losing streak (preseason or regular season carryover) may be more motivated.
Players on the roster bubble tend to play with more intensity, especially in Weeks 2 and 3.
5️⃣ Read Local Beat Reports & Insider News
Unlike the regular season, where national narratives dominate, preseason success comes from digging into:
Team-specific reports
Press conferences
Local beat writers on Twitter/X
This helps you catch:
Snap count plans
Who’s sitting out
Hidden camp standouts about to shine
6️⃣ Bet Totals Based on Tempo & Depth
Preseason games often go under, but not always.
When to bet the OVER:
Deep QB rooms and aggressive offensive schemes
Weak second- and third-string defenses
While many casual bettors skip preseason football, sharp handicappers know it's one of the best opportunities to beat the books. Why? Because oddsmakers can't rely on standard metrics like full-game stats or typical team power ratings—creating an edge for those who do their homework.
Here are the top strategies to crush NFL and college preseason betting:
1️⃣ Focus on Coaching Tendencies
Some coaches treat preseason like a glorified practice. Others? They want to win every snap.
Look for:
Coaches with strong preseason ATS (Against The Spread) records.
First-year head coaches who may want to set the tone.
Veteran coaches like John Harbaugh, who consistently cover.
Pro Tip: Research past preseasons and note coaches who play starters longer or run aggressive game plans.
2️⃣ Quarterback Rotations Matter More Than Starters
Star players rarely play long. Instead, evaluate the depth chart, especially at QB.
You want:
Teams with QB battles = motivated backups.
Competent backup QBs with NFL experience (e.g., a second-stringer like Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew can dominate against 3rd-string defenses).
Avoid teams with rookies and fringe QBs learning on the fly.
3️⃣ Track Line Movement... but Fade Overreactions
Yes, sharp money can move lines, but in preseason, the public often chases stale news like a starter sitting.
Smart angle:
Fade massive line moves (2+ points), especially late, when the value is gone.
Bet early when a news nugget breaks (like a coach saying the starters will play a full half).
4️⃣ Injuries & Motivation
Preseason injuries pile up, and depth wins games.
Also factor in:
Teams breaking in new coordinators or learning new schemes tend to play harder.
Teams on a losing streak (preseason or regular season carryover) may be more motivated.
Players on the roster bubble tend to play with more intensity, especially in Weeks 2 and 3.
5️⃣ Read Local Beat Reports & Insider News
Unlike the regular season, where national narratives dominate, preseason success comes from digging into:
Team-specific reports
Press conferences
Local beat writers on Twitter/X
This helps you catch:
Snap count plans
Who’s sitting out
Hidden camp standouts about to shine
6️⃣ Bet Totals Based on Tempo & Depth
Preseason games often go under, but not always.
When to bet the OVER:
Deep QB rooms and aggressive offensive schemes
Weak second- and third-string defenses
When to bet the UNDER:
Joint practice weeks (teams are less motivated to hit hard in actual games)
Thin rosters or key offensive injuries
7️⃣ Shop Lines & Use Live Betting
Because limits are lower and volatility is higher, books vary a lot in their odds.
Tips:
Have multiple accounts to shop the best numbers.
Live bet when one team clearly outclasses the other’s depth after the first quarter.
🎯 Final Thought: Preseason = Opportunity
Preseason football isn’t about betting the better team—it’s about betting the better situation. With lower limits and softer lines, it’s a goldmine for prepared bettors. Use the edge. Do the work. And cash in before the season even starts.When to bet the UNDER: 
Joint practice weeks (teams are less motivated to hit hard in actual games)
Thin rosters or key offensive injuries
7️⃣ Shop Lines & Use Live Betting
Because limits are lower for pro bettors and volatility is higher, books vary a lot in their odds.
Tips:
Have multiple accounts to shop the best numbers.
Live bet when one team clearly outclasses the other’s depth after the first quarter.
🎯 Final Thought: Preseason = Opportunity
Preseason football isn’t about betting the better team—it’s about betting the better situation. With lower limits and softer lines, it’s a goldmine for prepared bettors. Use the edge. Do the work. And cash in before the season even starts.
