Overvalued and Undervalued Second-Half Pitchers and Teams

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

As we’ve said a gazillion times—and make it a gazillion and one—we do not ever blindly bet any one system, theory et al, but we have copious starting points.  A case in point would be teams or pitchers we believe will be good value for sports bettors to go against or with.

Here are some highlights of that list:

Undervalued:

Atlanta, the Braves are already turning it up.  As you know, we have had great success in handicapping the mental part of the game.  Even with stars like Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine long gone, the fact that Atlanta has won 14 straight division titles gives them the feeling of invincibility. However Tim Hudson could be an exception as trusted opinions tell me they think he could be fighting an injury.

Jeff Weaver, Cardinals starter. The sportsbooks have not taken into account his move back to the NL puts him in a pitcher friendly park.  Wise sports gamblers know that 90 percent of pitchers perform better knowing they are likely to get run support. Pitching for the Redbirds accomplishes just that.

Felix Hernandez, Mariners starter. Here is a guy we faded when he was overvalued, now he has actually pitched better than his numbers.  Hitters are producing twice the number of ground balls as fly balls against him, so look out.

Chris Young, Padres starter.  Young actually has middling numbers at home, but he’s much better than he has shown.  History proves that pitchers with (relatively speaking) more impressive road numbers have much more of an upside. He is also ranked much higher in WHIP than ERA, the single best precursor to a pitcher who will raise the bar.

Dave Bush, Brewers starter.  Though we must admit, he’s better at home, Bush is another guy who ranks much higher in WHIP than ERA.

Overvalued:

Francisco Liriano, Twins starter. How many times have we crushed the sportsbooks by fading Second Comings who proved not to be?  Liriano no longer is pitching under the radar. The burden of high expectations is new territory for him.   

Detroit, few argue they are far and away the surprise of the first half. Manager Jim Leyland has always been his best in getting teams to play with emotion.  But as we are in the dog days, talent overrides emotion.  It’s much more of a case of everything going right for the Tigers than everyone being wrong about how good this team is.

Houston, they have underachieved as much as any team and have a great upside.  Repeat, we are big believers in the mental aspect, so adding stopper Roger Clemens can be a boost overall, not just when he’s on the hill.

The famed scorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net We start the week out with advanced news and notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com , top computer trends from forensic handicapper  Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com, live weather radar, sportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game day, and more to “beat the screen” on the sports information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net