Always Bet With Discipline

Don’t Scream Fire in a Crowded Sportsbook

Joe Duffy (www.joeduffy.net)

Frankly as I type this I’m in the middle of a slump. However history tells me by the time I finish scribing this article and it makes publication, we will be in the midst of a windfall. The key for a quality handicapper is to stay the course. My occupation is my addiction. As a result the only time I give myself off is the all-star break in baseball. Off betting that is. We use that time to write articles. Every now and then Christmas Eve will have no action, so I go to Midnight Mass. The point is (you were wondering) when we gamble more than 360 days a year, there are peaks and valleys.

With two-plus decades of experience, we know our peaks greatly outnumber the valleys and thus cannot and will not panic during our fleeting slumps even though each losing day seems like a month to us. We don’t decrease the size or number of bets nor do we increase during our more prevalent winning streaks. Heck I’ve seen that screaming dude from Philly on CNBC, Jim Cramer talk about the highs and lows he’s had on Wall Street. But he’s considered the mogul of stocks. Discipline no doubt is a major reason.

As the ole saying goes “It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon”. No self-sustaining gambler lives and dies off of a few nights. Pressing one’s luck, panicking, chasing, are among the deadly sins of gambling.

One of the symptoms of a degenerate gambler is someone who lives and dies by the game. Not only is there no such thing as a bailout game, but self-control ensures there should ever be a need for one.

In the pre-Internet days I announced on the scorephones, which at the time were the pre-eminent source for gambling information and also where sports services salivated to advertise. Regrettably the owner of the company did sell advertising to the highest bidder and inevitably every Monday Night Football promo for the 800 number scamdicappers involved the buzzword “bailout”. They knew there were so many degenerate gamblers in a state of panic from losing money in the two days previous and were desperate to cancel it out on one game.

Lucky for the books and casinos, restraint is something few gamblers have.

Many money experts will advise smart investors to bet the same amount each month into their 401(k ). It’s the same principle in gambling. Don’t panic during losing streaks or press during winning streaks. Stay the course.

We gamblers tend to be the most superstitious people in the world. It’s fine if it affects your rooting and watching habits but should never cross the line of impinging your handicapping.

Yes even we professionals have been there where every late run seems to go against us. I’ve sat in front of the television waiting for the missed free throw by my team followed by the meaningless wide open three-pointer by the bad guys at the buzzer for the half-point cover. When Lady Luck has screwed us over the previous 72 hours, we see it coming again better than Nostradamus ever did.

While I won’t deny even those of us who make a living picking winners are not immune from the snake bitten feeling of doom, we still tow the line knowing with proper handicapping and willpower we win a lot more than we lose.

Feeling bedeviled from a short-term string of last second losses has had me chomping at the bit wanting to hedge a “so far, so good” winning play on the half-time line. Rejection of the power of that nasty whore Lady Luck actually is easier said than done for the short-sighted and sometimes even so for those who know better.

Greed when placing bets can turn a 55 percent ATS winning percentage into a “losing” record, quickly in fact. Hysteria during stagnant periods can turn 45 percent into the bankroll equivalent 10 percent less. Often the biggest difference between the wealthy and destitute gambler is not mere winning percentage but the ability to use self-control during the downturns.

A lot of things go into making money gambling, with the ability to pick winners far and away No. 1. Being a good line shopper increases that. But more times than not, the degenerate gambler is not someone who always loses, but somebody who can’t properly manage losing.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godstips.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His daily news and notes are at www.joeduffy.net