Sports Gaming and Betting Winning Information

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 15

Joe Duffy (http://www.joeduffy.net/)

This is the latest in a series, a Godgepodge of sports gambling discussion.



Bubble Burst

On January 25, 2006 we enjoyed another Wise Guy winner on South Carolina beating Florida. It was a classic example of our “bubble burst” angle. “Momentum” is such a magic word in sports and once an overachieving team comes down to earth, that’s when we fade them. It’s best in baseball, where over a 162 game schedule “momentum” is the greatest x-factor. It’s a great angle though in the NBA where intensity can vary to say the least.

But when such impetus is stopped, the emotional pendulum swings and so often there is a short term disheartening. The reason the old sports cliché “It’s tougher to stay on top than to get there” is so befitting in soothsaying is simply it is so much easier to ride the wave when things are going well than to rebound from adversity.

This is truer with teams with stars who personify such. Ron Artest, Terrell Owens and the like are great to have when everything is copasetic, but can become cancers once the chips are down.

Portland during their recent Jail Blazer days was another example. Unexpected winning streaks are more times than not followed by extended skids.

Of course the opposite is true when premier teams come out of losing streaks. No doubt there are always going to be teams that surprise all experts, but more times than not teams do return to their expected level.

What Kenny Rogers, the singer that is, says about his card playing, sports gamblers also know when to hold them and know when to fold them. Ride the teams in paradoxical streaks, but once they skid, jump of the bandwagon quickly. As much as we hate clichés we acknowledge some apply. The higher they climb the harder they fall is so indubitable with teams exceeding their capabilities.

This is a perfect example of where discipline comes in. When a gambler rode a team in a paradoxical streak, it is very tough to make a betting U-Turn before the counterbalance takes affect. There is a certain obedience needed to avoid betting loyalty to a team that won you a lot of money. It took us some time to witness the precedence and experience the predicable turnabouts to develop self-control and apply Kenny Roger’s advice to sports gaming.

So often we hear comparisons of sports investing to those who gamble on the stock market. The Wall Street principles of buy low and sell high manifest here.

Nice to See Your Tax Dollars Put to Good Use

Why don’t I feel the world is a safer place for my children now that Sportingnews agreed to pay a $7.2 million dollar fine because they promoted “illegal” sportsbooks in print, radio and its website?

Frankly I could gloat. Truth is Sporting News Radio briefly filed a lawsuit against me, dropping it once they realized how frivolous it was. But they are only the latest in a line of multi-million fines from the busybody government.

Discovery Channel forfeited $6 million, PayPal $10 million. Could you imagine how much tax revenue would be raised if the government ever decided you have more right to decide what to do with your hard earned money than they do?

Thanks Catherine Hanaway, U.S. attorney for eastern Missouri. The world is much safer for democracy now that you’ve made it tougher for some guy in St. Charles to bet $15 on a halftime line. It sure is nice to know when I send my kids off to school, some radical online poker player won’t be driving the bus.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godstips.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.offshoreinsiders.com where daily sports handicapping information is available to crush the sportsbooks.