Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Most gamblers always specify pitchers when making a baseball bet. As a point of fact, injudiciously many handicappers make their bets based almost exclusively on starting pitchers. Few articles we’ve ever written have gotten as much response along the lines of “eye opening” in many cases even years later, than our “Clichés about Pitching and Defense are Offensive” essay.
We document the truth that many would consider sacrilegious—that so many gamblers overvalue pitching, oblivious to how much the odds have starting pitching built in. Before your blood boils, if you never read said column, go to the archives at JoeDuffy.net and read it with an open mind. Don’t judge right away. Track the theories for a few months and even years, as many of our converts have. We look forward to your feedback.
Remember though, the key in baseball betting is not winning percentage. Chalk addicts can hit 60 percent of their plays and lose money, while dog specialists (ahem) can hit 45 percent of their plays and win. Knowledge and proper management of probability/risk ratio is what baseball handicapping is all about.
A major danger in designating pitchers is if a great deal of your handicapping has to do with the teams involved, you could get screwed by a last minute scratch pitcher. A large percentage of changed hurlers involve a pitcher getting scratched in warm-ups, where there is little time to change a bet. A last minute pitching change may not change how you feel on the game, but it screws you out of a play.
The 2006 NY Yankees have had their share of injuries. Perhaps you are waiting on them to get 100 percent healthy among their starting eight and ride them during an anticipated winning streak. Or say the Pirates have an on base percentage of .398 over their last seven games. They face a Met team that is hitting .208 their last seven games with an on base percentage of just .252 and their overused and injury riddled bullpen is struggling as well.
Furthermore the game is in
The square player may actually believe this would be a rare case in which not listing
Perhaps, but sharp players only wonder would it improve the probability/risk ratio?
The probability/risk ratio says the Pirates would have to have at least a 38 percent chance of winning (at plus-160) to make it a good percentage play. You handicap they have a 52 percent for a +14 percent net. Hence it’s a good bet.
Your selection is in no way going against
Why? Alay Soler becomes the Mets pitcher and it increases our chances of winning only to 57 percent, because it was offensive, momentum and bullpen factors behind our original play. But the new pitching matchup makes
Most gamblers who don’t blindly always delineate pitchers subscribe to what seem like obvious rules of thumb:
· If your bet is based predominately on going against or for one pitcher, specify only that pitcher
· If your bet is based on a combination and preponderance of going for one and against the other pitcher, specify both
· If your bet has minimal pitching advantage but is based on one team having a huge edge, specify neither pitcher
But the flaw in that thinking is it overlooks our favorite circumstance:
· Picking with a team despite having a pitching disadvantage and hence disproportionately beneficial odds (example as above: betting the hot, much better-at-home Pirates against the struggling Mets with
Some may think that it’s a good idea to cover your assets and always specify pitchers based on what we said. Nope. Anytime we are picking team against team and it does not involve picking against a star pitcher or picking with a stiff pitcher, a scratch is unlikely to drastically change the probability/risk ratio, so we don’t specify starters.
A devil’s advocate may point out what if you are picking with Braves who have beneficial odds thanks to Jorge Sosa pitching, but he is scratched. John Smoltz is next in line and he starts. The risk is we go from picking a huge dog to a huge favorite by not specifying pitchers.
The reason we are more often willing to take that particular risk is managers are much more cautious with their star pitchers and an undisputed ace isn’t as likely to be thrown in on a moment’s notice. But we still acknowledge that probability/risk ratio potential pitfall. Hence, one has to strongly consider the likely starters for each team in the event of a scratch pitcher.
Thankfully scratch pitchers are not extremely common and over a long season specifying and not specifying pitchers is very doubtful to make the difference in a winning and losing season. However we accurately preach every small edge adds up, so don’t underestimate the importance of when and when not to check and uncheck one or both starters.
Overlooking the probability/risk ratio involved is a major facet that keeps square players subsidizing the books for the rest of us.
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