Over/Under Handicapping

Picking Over/Unders Just May Be the Hot Trend in Handicapping

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

Long time clients know that we do not use a lot of ATS trends in our handicapping.  However, knowing the public loves them, we do compile such angles for our daily content. It is geared towards non-clients who do utilize them in their own handicapping. 

Over the years, we noticed an unarguable pattern that our data mining sources will turn up a disproportionate number of statistically significant over/under trends as opposed to wins and losses against the spread.  We are ecstatic to see the success of my long-time colleague, Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com.  I’ve known Stevie since he was my Executive Editor of the Scorephone “Tailgate Party” pre-game information reports, that if I may say so, we made famous in the 1980s and 1990s.

Stevie is the founder of forensic handicapping, a complicated process that in short is based on the science of uncovering patterns in the past to accurately predict the future.  Trends are the basis of it, but application requires systematic and methodical diligence, not just mere trend regurgitation.

Vincent believes it is very obvious why it is easier to find patterns in totals. Sports is about making adjustments, but it is “much easier and therefore more common, to change the methods than it is to augment than the end result.” 

Forensic handicapping has proven, what seems so simplistic. “If, for example, a football team has lost three straight games in high scoring blowouts, passing the ball 70 percent of the time and running 30 percent, the area to adjust is obvious” and according to his contention and research, in most cases coaches and teams will adjust the pace or style they’ve employed. “But it does not mean the results will change”. 

He says one can uncover patterns, in which in such hypothetical model, that team may fiddle with and instead lose a lower scoring game. But he asserts, there will be a lot more historical patterns that suggest the approach will change even if the result does not.

Approach, pace, or whatever term gamblers wish to assign, is what generally will effect the total more.  The actual success in executing it determines the final score.

While Vincent states emphatically “the end results (spread win or loss) follow a distinctive pattern themselves” but they will not pass the necessary laws of probability at as high of a rate as totals handicapping.

With the success KnockoutPicks.com has had since Stevie finally made his professional handicapping debut in April, we would be “totally” nuts not to listen to his wisdom with over/under plays.

Stevie Vincent’s FREE information will be part of the Tailgate Party’s cyber debut all football season long, seven days a week, at JoeDuffy.net