Linesmaker Sports Handicapping

Handicapping The Chase Field

By Bill Kiser
WagerWeb went to its present championship format two years ago, the thinking was that the "Chase for the Championship" would rivet race fans to their televisions for the final 10 races of the season.

But the public's attention hasn't so much been drawn to those final 10 races, but to the 10 races leading up to the Chase.

The "Chase for the Chase," as some media have coined it, has seen the top 10 in the NASCAR WagerWeb Nextel Cupstandings change drastically from race to race, with drivers in the top 10 one week and on the outside looking in the next.

According to NASCAR's computations, 34 drivers are mathematically in contention to make the Chase for the Championship; realistically, the number of drivers who have a chance entering next week's Brickyard 400 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is not half that.

And even sitting in the top 10 in points -- heck, even in the top five -- at this point of the season won't ensure a driver a spot in the final 10 come September.

There's historical precedent backing that up -- last year, Elliott Sadler was third in points entering the Pepsi 400 at Daytona International Speedway and was considered locked in for the Chase.

But Sadler and his No. 38 Robert Yates Racing team slumped badly down the stretch, falling 10 spots in the point standings and ultimately failing to make the Chase.

With six races left in the "Chase for the Chase," only two drivers -- points leader Jimmie Johnson and No. 2 Matt Kenseth -- appear to be near-locks to make the final 10.

Beyond that, however, things are still very much up in the air -- only 188 points separate third through 12th place in the Nextel Cup standings.

Here's a quick look at how I believe the "Chase for the Chase" is stacking up, followed by my picks to make the Chase for the Championship.

99.9 PERCENT THERE: Jimmie Johnson (first in standings), Matt Kenseth (second in standings, 97 back of Johnson).

THEY'RE IN, BUT ...: Jeff Burton (third in standings, 318 back of Johnson), Kyle Busch (fourth in standings, 39 points behind Burton), Kevin Harvick (fifth in standings, 19 points behind Busch), Mark Martin (sixth in points, six points behind Harvick).

ON THE FENCE: Kasey Kahne (seventh in standings, 42 points behind Martin), Denny Hamlin (eighth in standings, one point behind Kahne), Jeff Gordon (ninth in standings, two points behind Hamlin).

NEEDS SOME HELP: Tony Stewart (10th in standings, 35 points behind Gordon), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (11th in standings, 15 points behind Stewart), Greg Biffle (12th in standings, 29 points behind Earnhardt).

FORGET IT: Kurt Busch (13th in standings, 122 points behind Biffle), Carl Edwards (14th in standings, 69 points behind Busch), Casey Mears (15th in standings, 57 points behind Edwards), Brian Vickers (16th in standings, 51 points behind Mears), Jamie McMurray (17th in standings, 46 points behind Vickers), Ryan Newman (18th in standings, eight points behind McMurray), Clint Bowyer (19th in standings, 16 points behind Newman), Elliott Sadler (20th in standings, 29 points behind Bowyer).

KISER'S PICKS: Johnson, Kenseth, Burton, Busch, Harvick, Martin, Kahne, Gordon, Stewart, Earnhardt.

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