Betting NFL Bye Weeks

 

When the NY Giants lost to the Dallas Cowboys on October 16, it made them 3-14 SU following bye weeks as compared to 14-3 before the extra week off.  While the Giants discrepancy is more pronounced, this statistic should come as no surprise.

Of all the columns we've ever written, the one about handicapping rested and unrested teams in the NBA was the exposition in which we got the most feedback along the lines of "eye opening" and the like.

The same basic premise applies with NFL bye weeks. While conventional wisdom (handicapping's ultimate oxymoron) would say teams off a bye week are at an advantage against teams that are not, no SU or ATS records support this groupthink.

This is because as the Giants illustrate, teams that are playing well before a bye week will only be taken out of their rhythm, groove and focus during an off week. Teams can't handpick when their bye week occurs.  Sometimes they come at the right time, often they come at the wrong occasion.

Of course the off-week is a good interval for teams to recover from injuries, but good handicappers already take into consideration injuries. To assume teams are healthiest off their bye week, well you know what they say about "assume".

Our pragmatism is bye weeks are bad for teams playing well and good for teams not playing well.

All this of course applies in college football too.  However there are diverse additional factors to consider in college.  First of all, in the NFL Pete Rozelle's legacy lives on.  So-called parity means there are not the huge variances in depth as there was years ago.  Teams lacking depth benefit from the time off but it's a much bigger consideration in collegiate ranks.

However all depth or lack thereof is not equal. For college football our unwritten rule is speedy but smaller teams benefit the most in an off week, because the undersized linemen need the rest the most.

Also as we discussed in our Tid-Bets, Vol. 10 letdown, look-ahead and sandwich games are an even bigger factor in college football and basketball then professional. An off week can counterbalance the various emotional factors more prevalent in college football.

Of course we've also heard clichés about giving this coach and that coach an extra week to prepare. Folks the most successful coaches are those who make in-game adjustments, without using extra time to gameplan. One could probably make a stronger argument that extra time benefits the inferior coaches who need it.

In fact we went Google happy trying to find one statistic or article that showed any significant angle to bye weeks in college and/or pro football.  In short we did not find any credible evidence that robotically assuming bye weeks result in coherent patterns.

Finally our Golden Rule is that the oddsmakers are one step ahead of you.  Knowing that Joey Bagodonuts too often blinding assumes the more rested team is the better play, bye weeks are already factored into the line. All that said bye weeks are overrated in handicapping.  In evaluating such, the educated bettor needs to ask if a team needed a bye week or not. 

True we did a lot of typing to conclude there is little benefit to handicapping bye weeks.  Ah but contraire, exposing myths is every bit as important to sports investing as uncovering certainties. And that's a fact worth buying into.  

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com This is a reprint of a previously published article. Get GodsTips, the top NFL handicapper ever at OffshoreInsiders.com