Affliction Betting - The Non-Fedor Fights

UFC 101 odds followers have to enjoy watching Affliction's rocky week. After Josh Barnett tested positive for banned substances, the main event involving Fedor Emelianenko is up in the air. Lost in the shuffle are the other main fights, which are pretty decent bouts. Let's look at a couple of them.

Renato Sobral (35-8) vs Gegard Mousasi (25-2-1)

Stressed about Fedor? Don't worry - Sobral/Mousasi is a great matchup. "Babalu" Sobral has seen it all; the skilled Jiu-Jitsu vet has fought the likes of Chuck Liddell and Fedor himself and beaten the likes of Shogun Rua and Jeremy Horn. He's a smart fighter who stays calm and is willing to take punishment to set up his deadly submissions.

However, Babalu has a very tall order in Gegard Mousasi. Mousasi, a kickboxer just entering his physical prime at age 23, is considered a top-three middleweight in the world in some MMA circles. He's a devastating striker and gets most of his victories via knockout (14). However, he's also very comfortable on the ground, having submitted eight opponents. Do the math; Gegard has finished 22 of his 25 victims. Chances are, this fight doesn't go the distance.

Sobral is a great fighter but Mousasi is just too tough and well-rounded for him. Expect him to take a beating, like a Patriots/Lions game in football betting.

Daily sports pick: Mousasi

Gilbert Yvel (36-13) vs Paul Buentello (24-9)

Here's my pick for the fight of the night, as Yvel and Buentello are two big, tough, take-no-prisoners heavyweights who like to strike. Yvel is known as a wild man and earned a reputation as the Mike Tyson of MMA when he punched out a referee in 2004. He's a killer in the ring, having won 31 fights via knockout. He even knocked out the iron-jawed Cheick Kongo; that gives you an idea of his power.

His opponent, Paul Buentello, may look sloppy, but he's a smart fighter. He's a great boxer with fantastic punching accuracy and he can even submit opponents on occasion. However, he doesn't have the same power and aggression as Yvel and has been overwhelmed by strong, aggressive fighters like Andrei Arlovski in the past. Bet on Yvel to win and, if you like prop bets, bet on the fight to end in a KO one way or the other. This fight alone should make Affliction worth what you pay per head to watch it.

Daily sports pick: Yvel