Tuesday, July 07, 2009

UFC 100 Betting - Handicapping the Non-title Fights

When you look at the UFC 100 fight card, make sure you don't just look at the title fights. Mir/Lesnar and St-Pierre/Alves will be awesome but the card has several other exciting fights to bet on. Let's make a few more picks.

Dan Henderson (24-7) vs Michael Bisping (18-1)
UFC odds:
Henderson -300, Bisping +240

For the umpteenth time in a row, Dan "Hendo" Henderson draws a world-class opponent. He's too good a fighter to ever get a break, so he faces the tough, well-rounded Michael Bisping in a middleweight bout. Henderson's game is wrestling, as he's a two-time Olympian, but he also has knockout power in both hands, so he can drop an opponent if he needs to. Having fought the likes of Anderson Silva and Rampage Jackson, the seasoned Henderson is a major sportsbook favorite.

However, I wonder if odds makers aren't giving Bisping enough credit in their sports predictions. The Englishman has just one career loss, and many fight fans even felt that decision should've gone to him over Rashad Evans. Bisping lacks finishing power but he's a solid technical striker who can score points. He also has a strong chin from what we've seen so far, so he has a slight edge on the standup. Henderson can likely overpower Bisping on the ground, but it's no guarantee, as Bisping's Jiu-Jitsu is underrated.

I'd pick Henderson if his money line was more reasonable, but I can't pass up Bisping at +240. He's evenly matched with Henderson, so I lke his value.

Sportsbook software pick: Bisping +240

Jon Fitch (22-3) vs Paulo Thiago (11-0)
UFC odds: Fitch -400, Thiago +300

The sportsbooks don't respect Paulo Thiago at all despite his perfect record, and I can't really blame them. Here we have a relatively unknown fighter who reportedly gets a title shot if he wins despite having only one fight in the UFC before this weekend's bout. He knocked out Josh Koscheck with an uppercut in his debut and, while the punch's power was impressive, it seemed fluky. I'm not convinced he's in the same class as Jon Fitch. The underrated Fitch is almost a poor man's Georges St-Pierre, as he combines good standup with great wrestling but doesn't do either as well as the champ does. Look for Fitch to make a statement against Thiago as he pushes for a rematch with GSP.

Sportsbook software pick; Fitch -400

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