Baseball’s Sharp versus Square Gap; Another Information Age Weapon and More
God’s Tid-bets, Vol. 21
Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)
This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.
Parlays are Par to Lay Off
We very often get questions about parlays and most people even preface it by admitting they “need a bailout”. First of all, as we’ve stated many times, there is no “bailout” game, parlay or bet of any sort.
But to answer the oft asked question, we never bet parlays. States Brian Gould of Freescoreboard.com, “Any proposition that we can go 4-1 and yet still lose money is something we want no part of.”
This is even truer in baseball, where by design we can pick 40 percent over a long period and still win thanks to the rudimentary yet still widely abandoned underdog math. Parlays are sports gambling’s get rich scheme.
We believe there are true “casual gamblers” and parlays do serve an entertainment purpose for weekend warriors who have self control and little delusions.
Here is an analogy. My parents live about 45 minutes from Atlantic City. They make the trip often, but do so to have a good time first and foremost. Hoping to win money is the carrot that increases their entertainment, but they are well aware over the long term they will lose money playing their beloved one arm bandits.
It’s the same way with the parlay card player. If the weekend warrior wants to play $10 on a parlay card or two per weekend to make his coach potato experience more enjoyable, more power to him. That is, as long as he knows parlays decrease his chances of winning in return for the low risk/high return rush.
We see no other use for parlays.
No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers
Most Vegas, offshore, or local books will tell you the biggest gap between the sharp and square player occurs in baseball. According to Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate AllianceHandicapping.com, the balance of power divide is even more pronounced among sports services. McCormick has accurate long-term records of virtually ever sports service and says roughly 8-13 percent of touts will turn a profit over a full season in other sports, but less than five percent in baseball.
He believes it comes down to marketing. “Services can pad their records, yet lose money by picking a lot of big favorites. Therefore they can win for losing by worrying about won-loss record ahead of ROI”.
Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com believes there is another reason—handicappers don’t put as much effort into picking baseball games because sales are always going to be higher in other sports. “Some handicappers literally take off during baseball season, while others only do figuratively.”
Bill Kayma, Managing Editor of Scorephone.com agrees with Vincent. “Many gamblers will pay for well marketed coin flips. That’s why we required all handicappers to provide at least a month of samples of their daily write-ups before allowing them on our site. Handicappers should always have quality analysis with their picks. If they don’t, chances are they are trying to pawn a mere hunch.”
The World Keeps Getting Smaller
We’ve touted modern technology time and time again and how this funky thing called the Internet gives the player the edge. That is as long as one has the time, effort and knowledge on how to use it.
As we’ve said, Internet radio is very valuable in getting the local skinny that was once available to a select few. Finally the nation’s first and still best sports station, WFAN in New York, can be heard online either via their home page or Radiomat.com.
A true sports station, as opposed to the “guy radio” pseudo sports formats polluting the airwaves, WFAN actually has reporters at the New York area teams’ practices. No station in the country is better at breaking news that is of interest to the gambler—the up-to-the-minute status on a star player considered a “game time decision”.
The insight is quite good and useful to the sports gambler too.
The number of sources for real time first-hand information continues to increase, but WFAN now being available on our office computer is one of the better ones in a long time.
Joe Duffy’s premium selections are available exclusively at www.godspicks.com Also get his exclusive daily news and notes, free sports service picks, approved sportsbooks, and more at JoeDuffy.net
