2009 NBA Playoffs Free Betting Pick: Hornets-Nuggets

No NBA team has been worse in the postseason than Denver.

In fact, the Nuggets are just 2-16 SU & 3-15 ATS in their L18 playoff games.

The franchise believes those struggles are behind them, and for good reason. With the mid-season trade for Chauncey Billups, Denver acquired one of the league’s most clutch playoff performers, a player with a long history of postseason success.

His leadership and a more diverse lineup have the Nuggets thinking big this time around. Oddsmakers have installed Denver as only a -220 series favorite vs. the Hornets, despite the spread in seed #2 vs. #7.

As the #2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs, the Nuggets are in an enviable position of having home court advantage for the first two rounds should they advance, as well as avoiding the heavily favored Lakers until the conference finals. Denver’s 54-wins in the regular season tied the franchise high since the old ABA days of ‘75-76. That of course, is another reason for optimism.

The opponent for Denver is the 7^th seeded New Orleans Hornets, fourth place finishers in the tough Southwest Division despite winning 49 games. The Hornets are hoping to emulate their playoff success of a year ago, when they advanced past Dallas in five games before falling to San Antonio in a grueling 7-game set.

New Orleans is one of the teams in the West that struggled down the stretch however, going just 8-10, including 2-5 against other conference playoff teams.

Much of the way this series goes hinges on the tempo of the games. Denver loves taking it up and down the court and enjoys a 104.3 PPG to 95.7 PPG edge in scoring over the Hornets.

Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the Nuggets’ defense however, as they actually hold opponents to a lesser field goal percentage (44.0%-45.3%) of the two teams.

If the Hornets have any edge, it’s in the postseason success they enjoyed last year and the play of PG Chris Paul, who has shown the ability to take over games on numerous occasions in his young career.

Prediction: Denver in five games

Now here’s a look at the top StatFox team playoff trends for both clubs:

#2 DENVER NUGGETS

DENVER has won just two of its L18 playoff games SU, going 3-15 ATS.

UNDER the total is on an incredible run of 17-2 in the L19 DENVER playoff games.

DENVER is just 1-7 SU ATS at home in the four playoff seasons under George Karl.  

#7 NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

The HORNETS’ franchise is on a 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS run at home in the postseason.

The HORNETS’ franchise has struggled as playoff underdogs, going 10-26 SU & 14-22 ATS in L36.

The HORNETS were 7-4-1 UNDER the total in the ‘08 NBA playoffs.