Thursday, April 30, 2009

Kentucky Derby Odds - Who Can Challenge I Want Revenge?

The Kentucky Derby odds are just two days away and there are still tough decisions to make at the racebook. Some horse race fans betting online see the field as I Want Revenge versus the rest whereas other bettors see a tightly contested race with a least half a dozen legit contenders. Let's look at some of the more intriguing horses entering the Race for the Roses.

Three-year-old I Want Revenge, the clear Kentucky Derby odds favorite at +325, is the class of the field, boasting a great Tomlinson Distance rating and Beyer Speed Figure. He also made a successful transition to dirt tracks on April 4, winning the Wood Memorial. There's an off chance his lack of experience at Churchill Downs will throw him off, but it's his race to lose. It will take a phenomenal performance to top him on Saturday.

Friesan Fire seems to be in his own class as the No. 2 racebook contender with +485 horse race betting line. He's looked strong this season, winning the Louisiana Derby, and he has that special pedigree as his daddy, A.P. Indy, was a dominant horse in the early 1990s. His main caveat is a long layoff; he hasn't raced in seven weeks. The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby odds after a seven-week layoff: 1956.

Dunkirk is next at +545 and has no glaring problems, but Pioneerof the Nile jumps out at me way more in this tier at +625. He has the great trainer Bob Baffert on his side and has generated a lot of buzz in drills this week, so he could be a nice racebook steal.

In boxing betting, part of what makes the Pacquiao odds so enticing this weekend is the momentum he carries into the fight. The same principle applies to Chocolate Candy (+1215) and Papa Clem (+1815) for the Derby, as they carry as much steam as any horses entering the big race. Candy has won four of six races and Clem not only captured the Arkansas Derby, but also recently posted a pair of second-place finishes against top-notch competition.

General Quarters is a major long shot at +2550, but it's tempting to bet with your heart on this guy, as his Trainer, Tom McCarthy, is a former high-school principal from Louisville. Seeing a win for the local product would be horse race betting magic.

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