MLB betting gurus know that few runs are likely to be scored on Thursday afternoon in Seattle, when the Cubs and Mariners finish a three-game set with a matinee beginning at 3:40 p.m. Eastern time at Safeco Field. Chicago's National League team and the homestanding Seattle ballclub have simply been impotent throughout this 2010 baseball season. Two teams with high expectations have disappointed to a considerable degree.
The online betting community does indeed know that much like a World Cup blog, a recap of this game could very likely involve a 1-0 score. Let's go deeper, though, in search of a winner when the Cubs and Mariners tangle in the Pacific Northwest.
MLB Baseball: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Thursday, June 24
Bookmaker Odds: No line (as of yet)
Establishing World Cup odds is a lot like establishing the odds for this particular baseball battle on Thursday afternoon. If one team can score three times, it's virtually assured of winning. If a team scores twice, it has a very good chance of winning. If a team scores only once, it's an open question as to which team will win. Yes, Chicago and Seattle have been that bad at the dish in 2010.
The Cubs entered Tuesday evening's play (and the start of this three-game set) as the 11th-ranked team in the National League in runs scored. The Cubs totaled only 294 runs through 69 contests, for an average of just over four runs per game. The Cubs stood at 13th place in the National League in batting average, and they've simply failed to swing the big sticks that a Wrigley Field team needs to wield. The Cubbies have been bereft of big power and crooked numbers on the scoreboard, and that's a big reason why they're looking upward at the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds in the N.L. Central standings.
Yet, for all the ways in which Chicago has struggled at the plate, Seattle has been far worse. The Mariners entered Tuesday's play 28th in batting average, 29th in home runs, and 27th in runs batted in. Manager Don Wakamatsu has been aghast at the lack of run production his offense has generated. Pitching was always going to be the strength of the Mariner roster, but few could have predicted the extent to which the M's would fail to plate more than three runs per game.
Therefore, we have a pitching matchup that should keep the numbers way down at Safeco. Carlos Silva (8-2, 3.01 ERA) goes to the hill for the Cubbies, while Felix Hernandez (5-5, 3.39 ERA) toes the bump for the Mariners. Who should win? The pitchers, naturally; but if one wants to pick a winner, here's why Seattle is the better choice.
Whereas Hernandez is an unknown commodity to the Cubs' hitters, Silva spent much of 2009 with the Mariners and struggled mightily. Therefore, two factors are working in Seattle's favor: For one thing, they know Silva and won't be intimidated or fooled by what they see in the early innings of this game. Hernandez will pose problems for Chicago batsmen who haven't yet seen King Felix in their careers. On the other hand, Seattle won't have to worry too much about a scouting report.
The second factor that works in favor of the Mariners is that Silva will be pitching under American League rules, since this game is in Seattle. Silva has an ERA that's 0.38 better than Hernandez, but that can safely be attributed to the National League (versus the American League).
All in all, it's very likely that in a low-scoring game, the Mariners will scratch out one or two more runs than the Cubs.
Online baseball betting pick: Mariners
