Here's a main event we've been waiting for since November. Last fall, Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin were set to clash for the UFC heavyweight title but a life-threatening illness sidelined Lesnar...until now. Big Brock is back and ready to defend his belt in what should be a hugely popular pay-per-view this Saturday. Let's make some UFC betting picks.
HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs Shane Carwin (12-0)
Sportsbook odds: Lesnar -150, Carwin +120
While Brock Lesnar rested up, Shane Carwin was busy wreaking more havoc on the UFC's heavyweight division. The only man with a larger glove size than Lesnar, Carwin has been an absolute beast since joining the promotion. He's an NCAA division-II wrestling champ but his main strength has been his hands. No one has last even made it out of the first round against him – including big names like Gabriel Gonzaga and, most recently, Frank Mir, who set a record by lasting 3:48 against Carwin.
Carwin's win over Mir was terrifying because he crushed the man with short, lefthanded uppercuts. Since he generates so much punching power, even from short distances, he's the greatest striking threat Brock Lesnar has ever faced.
The champ has plenty going for him too. Lesnar's wrestling pedigree is even better – a Division-I champ – and he's an absolutely freakish athlete. His speed and agility relative to his size, no exaggeration, is the heavyweight division's equivalent of Georges St-Pierre. He's a broader man than Carwin and may have a slight strength advantage in the grappling game.
But I see some problems for Brock in this fight. First off, there's the ring rust factor. How fit and ready to fight will he be after almost dying and not fighting for a year? Secondly, whereas Carwin has been hit and hurt before (by Gonzaga before rallying for the win), no one has ever hurt Lesnar. That will change if Carwin connects. We still don't know how Lesnar will respond to taking a hard punch. Lastly, Carwin is smaller than Brock but not by much. Facing his biggest, strongest opponent yet, Lesnar may not have his usual landslide edge in the wrestling game. That may force him to try other things – such as standing and striking. And that would favor Carwin.
Brock Lesnar's future remains very bright in MMA but I'm not sure he's catching Carwin at the right time. Carwin is peaking and his fists are devastating. I think he pulls off the upset – via knockout.
Today's free pick: Carwin +120
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1, 2 NC) vs Chris Leben (20-6)
Sportsbook odds: Akiyama -205, Leben +165
All the momentum swings toward the underdog Leben in this middleweight matchup. Fresh off an impressive win against Aaron Simpson less than two weeks ago, Leben got the call to replace injured Wanderlei Silva in this bout. There's no pressure on him and Yoshihiro Akiyama is a nice step up in competition.
For Akiyama, this situation is a bit of a nightmare – so much that he almost backed out upon learning he was fighting Leben. Beating Wanderlei Silva, a "name," would've shot Akiyama up the rankings. He has nothing to gain by beating Leben and everything to lose. Leben's brawling style and heavy hands make him a younger albeit poor man's version of Silva. I don't like the matchup for Sexyama. Go with the betting upset.
Today's free pick: Leben +165
