LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY -136) Arizona (Collmeter)
By our standards this is a big chalk. But so many key metrics scream to bet on the Dodgers. They have gotten some of the ownership distractions behind them winning three straight and 4-of-5.
Arizona has lost five straight and they are 4-13 their last 17 on the road. For the year, the Diamondbacks are hitting just .230 on the road with a rancid .289 OBP. Their their last seven games overall it's an even more embarrassing .220 BA and .282 OBP.
Arizona has a slugging percentage of just .296 in their last five games. That's .53 points fewer than the Dodgers on base percentage in that span.
LA is 8-3 to left-handed starters. That's a powerful split considering they are just 11-17 to righties. Speaking of splits, Chad Billingsley has a home ERA of 1.71 with a fantastic WHIP of 0.762.
Going back to last year Arizona is 27-63 in their last 90 road games against a right-handed starter. They are 17-38 versus an opponent with a losing record including 5-16 on the road.
The Dodgers are 35-17 in the series.
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There aren't many bigger Jair Jurrjens fans out there as I really believe in the Atlanta righthander but this is just too much, flat out too much. Certainly Jurrjens is better than the mediocre Joe Blanton but I don't care. Anything I can get Charlie Manual's great baseball team plus such an amount I'm in. Granted I'm not dropping a bomb and saying how this is the most phenomenal play I have ever seen but Rollins, Howard, Victorino, Polanco and the potential 2011 World Champions plus this much? Yes please.
The Braves are a high quality club that will win this game more times than they won't. But with that said I don't think they win it at the pace that the oddsmakers seem to believe. Blanton hasn't been great and has been banged up but the guy is a veteran who can hold his own. It's not like Blanton is complete and utter garbage at all. The northpaw could get hit and the Fightin' Phillies could lose the game but the price is too good to pass up in some way, shape or form.
Philadelphia is always a must play at this sweet takeback, period.
Top expert pick on this game: Philadelphia from Matt Rivers