MLB Betting – Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Cole Hamels (5-2) vs. Mike Pelfrey (6-1)
Hamels vs. Mets Hitting
After a disappointing 2009 campaign, Cole Hamels has re-positioned himself as a solid number two starter in the league. While his numbers aren't otherworldly (3.92 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), they're a vast improvement from last year, which is a welcome sign to the Phillies. Recently, Hamels has been at his best. He's won three straight decisions, not allowing more than three runs in any of them. His most recent start was his best, as he threw seven innings of three-hit ball, allowing one run and striking out eight. More importantly, he only walked one batter. That's a great sign considering too many walks have been a major problem for Hamels over the past year and a half.
Hamels is no stranger to the Mets, and they don't necessarily bring out the best of him. In nine career starts, the lefty is 2-4 with a 4.12 ERA. This season, the Mets' bats aren't breaking any records, so it shouldn't be impossible for Hamels to break out a good game. If you bet on MLB, the matchup to watch will be Hamels versus David Wright. The third-baseman is a career .348 hitter against Hamels, and has the best overall numbers of anybody on New York.
Pelfrey vs. Phillies Hitting
Mike Pelfrey may not be the most well-known New York Met, but this season he certainly is one of the best. The literal giant of the starting rotation (he's 6'7") has put up killer numbers so far: 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA. He's won his last two starts, allowing only three runs in 14 overall innings. Pelfrey's high walk number is cause for some concern, but he's been able to pitch out of jams so effectively this year that the extra men on base are becoming irrelevant. Not sure how long that will last, though.
Pelfrey has never had much success against Philadelphia, and it showed with his lone start against the Phillies this year. The righty was rocked, allowing eight runs in four innings; it's Pelfrey's only loss so far. If you're betting, note that thPelfreye former first-rounder is especially shaky against the Phillies big bats. Ryan Howard is a career .440 hitter against Pelfrey, while Chase Utley is hitting .320 with four home runs and eight RBI's in 25 career AB's. Jayson Werth, who leads the Phillies this year in batting average and RBI's, has had just mild success against Pelfrey (.286, 0 HR, 1 RBI). That all could change quickly.
Bullpen Comparison
The re-emergence of a Francisco Rodriguez (1.96 ERA, 25 K's in 23 innings) is a welcome sight to Mets fans. The decision to move Hisanori Takahashi from the 'pen to the starting rotation, even if it is temporarily, is a bane to the Mets relief core. Takahashi was very effective in his role, and someone like Pedro Feliciano needs to step in his place if New York wants to keep referring to their bullpen as a strength.
Outside of Jose Contreras (0.63 ERA in 14 innings), the Phillies bullpen could use some work. Injuries to guys like Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have really hurt, and this may be the one area that will need an upgrade midseason. There's just not enough proven talent to really trust this unit.
Outlook
History says the Phillies have the edge, and I'm going to have to side with history on this one. New York's offense is too streaky, while Hamels is pitching his best ball of the season. Pelfrey's career struggles against Philadelphia are also a pretty strong selling point. If you're betting, Philadelphia would be the smart decision.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies.
