Friday, February 29, 2008

ESPN Fantasy Sports Information is Betting Information

It's been awhile since we authored a volume in this series. However more anticipated than a Harry Potter novel, the Tid-Bets return to take a look at various sports handicapping and betting issues.

How Do Handicappers Work Overtime?

CBS announcer Gary Danielson accurately observed how college football overtimes can greatly distort statistics. From a handicapping standpoint, this is certainly true for those who use deceptive rankings or points per game statistics. Luckily sharp bettors do not or they are weighted very lightly.

The main statistics that we use: yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense compared to the cumulative average of their opponents and net yard advantage/disadvantage, are not debased by overtime play.

We've explained in previous articles why straight up wins and losses, point margin, and offensive and defensive rankings are the most popular choices of square players plan their own death sentence.

"If a team wins by eight in four overtimes, it looks the same as an eight-point win in regulation," says Mike Godsey, Senior handicapper of GodsTips.com, referring to those who use the above fatal stats.

"But if the losing team is stopped on the three-yard line trying to tie the game, it is very much accounted for in our statistics," brags Godsey, who mainly prefers the net yardage margin statistic.

Godsey adds that as a fan he despises the fact that teams start 25 yards from pay dirt; it is built-in insurance that the more reliable numbers don't get too distorted in overtime.

Will the Pitching and Defense Cliché Ever Die?

In 2007, no surprise, seven of the top eight offenses based on a team's on base percentage made the playoffs. Two of the three teams that finished with 70 wins or less, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, ranked in the top five in defense, ahead of six of the eight playoff teams. And six of the top 10 pitching teams missed the playoffs.

This is on the heels of St. Louis winning the World Series with Chris Carpenter and a cast of rejects on their pitching staff. Their closer was a converted rookie starting pitcher. The year before the White Sox had a good starting pitching staff and an abysmal bullpen. In recent years, Arizona won with Johnson and Schilling and the rest of the staff worth killing.

The Toronto Blue Jays this year had the best pitching staff in MLB with A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. All they did was finish 13 games out of first place.

This year the Colorado Rockies enter the World Series having won an historic 21-of-22 games. The ace of their staff is Jeff Francis, a very solid pitcher indeed. Problem is, he'd be the No. 3 starter on the Atlanta Braves, a team that the media said failed to make the playoffs because of lack of pitching. But not to worry, rounding out the Rockies pitching staff is Ubadlo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Combined, they have seven career wins under their belt. Yes, combined they have seven more wins at the Major League level than I do.

Pitching and defense wins in the media, but the teams with the best clutch hitting are the squads that professional gamblers laugh with all the way to the bank.

ESPN Fantasy Football Simulations a Tool for Proposition Bettors

Over the last several years, online gamblers have been able to bet on the production of individual players. One of the best on fantasy football betting is Mike Snow of BettorsAdvice.com.

He says there is no better starting point than the ESPN fantasy football projections. "We of course make adjustments for injuries, but contrasting the player proposition odds to the ESPN simulations has proven to be great starting point.

Lower betting limits make it tougher for sharp players to clean house on the sportsbooks, but Snow says some of the highest return on investments have been in betting NFL player propositions.

Joe Duffy's sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers. You can beat the ESPN ATS411 odds at OffshoreInsiders.com

Point Shaving, 5 Inning Bets and Preseason Football Winning

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Does the Commissioner Want to Send a Stern Message?

Though David Stern was non-committal on how the referee Tim Donaghy betting scandal would affect Las Vegas’ bid to get an NBA team, most experts agree the fiasco will be the death knell for Sin City’s bid for a franchise.

Stern has admitted it is his understanding the bets were placed illegally and not through Vegas. If Stern were genuine about stopping point-shaving, he would ban NBA games being played in cities where illegal sports betting is rampant: Philadelphia, New York and Boston. Better yet, Stern could campaign for complete legalization, where a legitimate activity need not be forced underground and into the underworld.

Methinks Stern will choose the hypocritical road.

Sharpie: 5 Inning Lines the Best Prop Play

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com is the top expert when it comes to evaluating pitchers. Vincent says starting pitching is the one certainty because gamblers can specify pitchers, thus it is the easiest to exploit proposition bet.

“We can’t specify a bet is cancelled if a clean-up hitter is scratched. We don’t know beyond reproach how the pinch hitter/relief pitcher chess game will transpire. But we do know who the starting pitchers will be.”

He elaborates that pinch hitters and the bullpen can determine full-game bets, but starting pitching is the primary decider on five-inning wagers.

Some Things Are Worth Repeating

I’ve authored my share of articles on preseason betting strategy. Though we refine strategies as the fluid art of handicapping dictates, one truth that remains indisputable is that the Internet has been most invaluable during the NFL preseason.

Accurate quarterback and key player rotations, motivational information and other key intel are available for the adept Internet surfer. Best of all, more precise lowdown evolves after sportsbooks post odds, putting the advantage to the gambler.

Preseason football is a boon to the true sharp player because it is a goldmine for so-called “intangible” information.

Futures Bet

The most popular futures bet is on who will win the Super Bowl. We say the San Diego Chargers. Only baseball’s Bobby Cox and perhaps the NBA’s George Karl have consistently done less with more in the postseason than disposed Bolt coach Marty Schottenheimer. A clear case of addition by subtraction, we expect new coach Norv Turner to take the already loaded Chargers to the Promised Land.

Joe Duffy of GodsTips.com , the “NFL Specialist” has for the first time ever, by popular request, full-season football-only packages. They are available at OffshoreInsiders.com

February Basketball Handicapping and More

College Home Court Advantage Decreasing This Time of Year

In our articles over the years, we’ve alluded to it before, but do not forget this is the time of the year the home/road splits lessen significantly. That is, weak road teams have the biggest upside while their price decreases.

This is especially so in the major conferences where many of the most top teams have freshmen studs playing key roles and played few road games before conference play. The frosh adapt to road play and teams that play cupcake schedules early peak late.

It’s not like teams need to fine-tune to playing at home, but they certainly do when it comes to playing in hostile enemy courts. The biggest improvement that we see, come early to mid-February, is road play of young teams that played mostly neutral and home games in pre-conference play.

Somebody Train These Radio Sports Update Guys

With the FCC punishing radio and television left and right, how about handing out six figure fines to the most offensive thing I hear on radio all the time? I’m speaking of when a knucklehead on a sports update calls a game an “upset” when it’s not.

These dunces think just because a team is higher ranked, losing in an upset. Any handicapper knows this is far from always the case. If a sports announcer calls a an upset and the winning team does not cover the spread, that broadcaster should be relegated to spinning Kevin Federline and Don Johnson records for the rest of his life.

Is Vegas behind the War on Offshore Betting?

Theories abound as to why in the age, one would think, when our government has higher priorities; they have offshore sportsbooks in their crosshairs. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I cannot help but wonder if the land based casinos put pressure on the government.

As quoted in CasinoBettingNews.com, Las Vegas saw a whopping 336 percent increase in football betting in November of 2006 from the same month in 2005. We report, you decide.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com

Beat the NCAA Pointspread, NFL Odds, and Win Football Bets

Follow Up on When to Specify Pitchers

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com is generally accepted as the top baseball handicapper in the world when it comes to handicapping pitchers. He’s clearly established himself as the foremost authority on baseball totals plays.

Because he’s the most respected voice in the “pitching and defense is 80 percent of the game” crowd, it should come as no surprise that he says gamblers should always specify pitchers when placing a bet. In fact, he continued that it’s doubly true with over/under plays. “When betting a total, anyone who does not specify starting pitchers shouldn’t be gambling.”

With his unprecedented over/under record, who are we to argue?

Is Nothing Sacred?

I’m all for the fact that people can bet on just about anything. If only our own government realized this unalienable right. However, now sportsbooks allow anyone to bet on the number of hurricanes to hit Florida this summer or if certain terrorist leaders will be captured.

There just seems to be something intrinsically wrong with someone rooting for more killer hurricanes or that a terrorist mastermind stays on the loose, just to win a $100 bet.

By no means would I suggest such bad taste would ever be the difference between the United States finally legalizing online sportsbooks, but often one has to win the hearts and minds of the public and the elected officials. Sportsbooks that carry such inelegant proposition plays aren’t helping matters any.

But Nothing Unsacred

There are few people more universally respected in the industry than Buzz Daly (www.buzzdaly.com), the veteran industry writer. Ironically enough, Buzz asked the same “is nothing sacred” question regarding the practice of sports gaming posting boards paying top posters to move to their site.

First of all, I had no idea of such practice, but I can’t say I see a darn thing wrong with it. My philosophy at Godspicks.com has always been to put most of my time, effort and money into the product.

Other handicappers spend more money on marketing, but I believe in worrying about the product first and foremost. Bravo to posting boards that do the same. Is paying people to stimulate interest with quality posts any more sacrilegious than paying an SEO guy to have you ranked ahead of the competition at Google? How about upgrading software to make a posting board look better?

I’ll take substance over style any day and if bells and whistles are worth paying for, why isn’t quality content?

Now if we can only convince some posting boards to pay people not to post.

OffshoreInsiders.com is the top source when it comes to Internet sports betting but we also have great products such as satellite radio, StubHub tickets for sold out sporting events (even if you don’t bet on sports), products from the Sharper Image and more at our online store. You also get game matchups, sponsored by the respected NewBodog.

Beat the NCAA Pointspread, NFL Odds, and Win Football Bets

Follow Up on When to Specify Pitchers

With his unprecedented over/under record, who are we to argue?

Is Nothing Sacred?

There just seems to be something intrinsically wrong with someone rooting for more killer hurricanes or that a terrorist mastermind stays on the loose, just to win a $100 bet.

But Nothing Unsacred

I’ll take substance over style any day and if bells and whistles are worth paying for, why isn’t quality content?

Now if we can only convince some posting boards to pay people not to post.

Las Vegas Sports Betting, Baseball Betting and Beat the Point Spread

Vent My Spleen, Part 1

The first 21 Tid-Bets were either discussing strategy or commentary on social issues related to gambling. But I have to do something I can’t stand: whine a little.

As long time clients know, we more than hold our own when it comes to winning more than we lose. Yet over the last three years, when a baseball game goes into extra innings or a hockey game into OT, we have no chance. I don’t think any logic can explain our polar opposite ROI when it comes to regulation and overtime games.

Thank GodsTipss there are a lot more games that end in regulation than overtime. But whomever out there has the voodoo doll with my handsome mug on it, please tell me what I’ve ever done to you to make you put the overtime whammy on me.

I know life’s not fair, but this OT/extra inning jinx just isn’t justified.

More Shout Outs

Like we said, we never hesitate to shout out to other gambling sites when they deserve it. Congratulations to Eog.com for landing professional oddsmaker, the respected Russ Culver to produce exclusive content for them. Personally I’m looking forward to see what it will be.

Russ was formally associated with Vegas Insider, which does a good job with injuries. It’s a “cheat sheet” for us to ensure we didn’t miss key player statuses, but we always dig deeper to corroborate. However VI is a nice starting point.

My hat is off to Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com, who was my editor during my many years of broadcasting the various scorephone “Tailgate Parties”. No surprise to those of us who knew him and worked with him, he is quickly becoming the most respected “numbers guy” in handicapping. But he tells us even he looks beyond his “forensic handicapping” and loves MLBinjuries.com for accurate player injury information on the diamond.

We Monitor Bullpens More Closely as Dog Days Approach

One could reasonably say the reason our extra innings record is not close to being on par with our overall record has to do with we don’t use bullpen statistics as much as some of the few elite handicappers do. Of course that wouldn’t explain our NHL overtime jinx. Nor does it end the mystery as to why the extra frame struggles started three years ago, after two decades of picking winners.

But regardless, with the season going deeper and hot, humid weather approaching; we do weigh bullpen performance, both overall and recent more than we do early in the year. Like starting pitching, we evaluate WHIP a notch above ERA.

Of course number of innings pitched recently by the closer and top two setup men is huge as well. We’ve written articles about the virtues of boxscores in handicapping and arguably when it comes to analyzing bullpens, that facet of research doesn’t get bigger.

There will be instances and not that infrequent when a closer pitches three days in a row, often in 90 degree weather. This is actually the type of morsel that the baseball channel on XM Radio has really helped us out with, not to mention listening to the hometown broadcasts on such. Also the fantasy baseball sites are yet another fact checking reinforcement and we are more and more liking daily write-ups on MLB.com for bullet points for the ah, you know, serious baseball fan.

Want to beat the sports odds? The sports services at OffshoreInsiders.com have been doing it longer than anyone else.

Betting Parlays at Sportsbooks and More

Parlays are Par to Lay Off

We very often get questions about parlays and most people even preface it by admitting they “need a bailout”. First of all, as we’ve stated many times, there is no “bailout” game, parlay or bet of any sort.

But to answer the oft asked question, we never bet parlays. States Brian Gould of OffshoreInsiders.com, “Any proposition that we can go 4-1 and yet still lose money is something we want no part of.”

This is even truer in baseball, where by design we can pick 40 percent over a long period and still win thanks to the rudimentary yet still widely abandoned underdog math. Parlays are sports gambling’s get rich scheme.

We believe there are true “casual gamblers” and parlays do serve an entertainment purpose for weekend warriors who have self control and little delusions.

Here is an analogy. My parents live about 45 minutes from Atlantic City. They make the trip often, but do so to have a good time first and foremost. Hoping to win money is the carrot that increases their entertainment, but they are well aware over the long term they will lose money playing their beloved one arm bandits.

It’s the same way with the parlay card player. If the weekend warrior wants to play $10 on a parlay card or two per weekend to make his coach potato experience more enjoyable, more power to him. That is, as long as he knows parlays decrease his chances of winning in return for the low risk/high return rush.

We see no other use for parlays.

No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers

Most Vegas, offshore, or local books will tell you the biggest gap between the sharp and square player occurs in baseball. According to Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine.com, the balance of power divide is even more pronounced among sports services. McCormick has accurate long-term records of virtually ever sports service and says roughly 8-13 percent of touts will turn a profit over a full season in other sports, but less than five percent in baseball.

He believes it comes down to marketing. “Services can pad their records, yet lose money by picking a lot of big favorites. Therefore they can win for losing by worrying about won-loss record ahead of ROI”.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com believes there is another reason—handicappers don’t put as much effort into picking baseball games because sales are always going to be higher in other sports. “Some handicappers literally take off during baseball season, while others only do figuratively.”

Bill Kayma, Managing Editor of OffshoreInsiders.com agrees with Vincent. “Many gamblers will pay for well marketed coin flips. That’s why we required all handicappers to provide at least a month of samples of their daily write-ups before allowing them on our site. Handicappers should always have quality analysis with their picks. If they don’t, chances are they are trying to pawn a mere hunch.”

The World Keeps Getting Smaller

We’ve touted modern technology time and time again and how this funky thing called the Internet gives the player the edge. That is as long as one has the time, effort and knowledge on how to use it.

As we’ve said, Internet radio is very valuable in getting the local skinny that was once available to a select few. Finally the nation’s first and still best sports station, WFAN in New York, can be heard online either via their home page or Radiomat.com.

A true sports station, as opposed to the “guy radio” pseudo sports formats polluting the airwaves, WFAN actually has reporters at the New York area teams’ practices. No station in the country is better at breaking news that is of interest to the gambler—the up-to-the-minute status on a star player considered a “game time decision”.

The insight is quite good and useful to the sports gambler too.

The number of sources for real time first-hand information continues to increase, but WFAN now being available on our office computer is one of the better ones in a long time.

SportingNews Radio continues to advertise Jonathan Stone. But is he among the top handicappers on MasterLockLine.com which is literally the power of 620 sports services behind every selection? Find out as MasterLockLine.com has all the top sports service plays from all the top handicappers in their highest rated sports.

Friday NBA Betting Previews

Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors: Pacers forward Granger is out

New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta forward Williams is questionable, guard Law doubtful.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: Cleveland guard James probable and forward Szczebiak is out.

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Boston Celtics: Charlotte guard Wallace out, but forward Richardson is probable.

Washington Wizards vs. Chicago Bulls: Chicago guard Sefolosha is questionable.

Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Hornets: Hornets forward Wells is doubtful.

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks: Dallas has won 14-of-18 straight up in the series.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets: Memphis forward Miller is doubtful.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets: Denver is 3-1 straight up in the series.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors: Golden State is a five point favorite at the sportsbooks.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers: Lakers forward Radmanovic doubtful, while Portland star guard Roy is questionable and Jones is probable.

Miami Heat vs. Seattle SuperSonics: Seattle guard Watson is probable.

Who Will Win American Idol? The Sportsbooks Know!

As readers to OffshoreInsiders.com saw last week, the NewBodog oddsmakers were nothing short of sensational when it came to foretelling the Academy Awards winners. Forget the polls. To see who is truly leading in the race for the White House, check out the odds to be elected President of the United States.

Now several of the top sportsbooks have posted odds on who will win American Idol 7. David Archuleta is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2008 American Idol. Archuleta is listed as 10/11. Michael Johns is next at 7/1, followed very closely by Carly Smithson at 15/2.

The site DialIdol.com has proven to be fairly accurate in predicting the eventual winner by measuring busy signals. If that site is to be believed, Amanda Overmyer is a tremendous long shot at 75/1.

NewBodog has Ramiele Malubay and Brooke White each at 9/1 while Jason Castro is 16/1.

Asia'H Epperson, a favorite of forensic handicapping founder Stevie Vincent is also a dark horse at 18/1. Kristy Lee Cook is also in the running according NewBodog which has her at 20/1.

If American Idol bettors think that David Hernandez, David Cook, Syesha Mercado, Danny Noriega, or Kady Malloy will win, a lot of money is to be had. Each is ranging from 27/1 to 50/1.

Those given little chance to win according to the bookmakers include Amanda Overmyer and Chikezie Eze at 75/1 and Luke Menard at 125/1. How long of a shot is that? The same as Ron Paul's odds of being the Republican nominee for President of the US as Paul is 125/1.

Heat-Supersonics Pointers

The Miami Heat and the Seattle SuperSonics will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at KeyArena.

Oddsmakers currently have the Heat listed as 1-point favorites versus the SuperSonics, while the game's total is sitting at 198.

The Heat were crushed 106-88 by the Lakers last time out, as 14-point underdogs on the road. The combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 210.

Shawn Marion led the Heat with 11 points and five rebounds, while shooting 5-for-8 from the field with in the loss.

The SuperSonics were crushed 138-96 by the Nuggets last time out, as 9-point road underdogs. The combined 234 points sailed OVER the posted total of 213.

Johan Petro netted 15 points with eight rebounds in a losing effort for the SuperSonics.

Current streak:
Seattle has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Miami: 10-46 SU, 19-36-1 ATS
Seattle: 15-42 SU, 28-28-1 ATS

Miami most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Sacramento are 5-5
After playing LA Lakers are 7-3
After a loss are 1-9

Seattle most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Minnesota are 2-8
After playing Denver are 3-7
After a loss are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami

Next up:
Miami at Sacramento, Sunday, March 2
Seattle at Minnesota, Sunday, March 2

Lakers-Trail Blazers Vegas Betting Odds

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Rose Garden.

Oddsmakers currently have the Lakers listed as 8-point favorites versus the Trail Blazers, while the game's total is sitting at 195.

The Lakers dominated every aspect of the game on Thursday, as they ran over the Heat 106-88. The Lakers covered the 14-point spread, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 210.

Kobe Bryant had 17 points with six assists in a losing effort, and Jordan Farmar added 10 in the win.

The Trail Blazers pulled out a hard-fought 82-80 victory over the Clippers last time out, as 2-point road underdogs. The 162 points were UNDER the posted total of 182.

Jarrett Jack shot 9-for-13 from the field with 21 points and eight rebounds to lead the Trail Blazers, and Martell Webster added 15 in the victory.

Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 10 straight games.

Team records:
Los Angeles: 41-17 SU, 37-20-1 ATS
Portland: 30-28 SU, 29-29 ATS

Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Dallas are 3-7
After playing Miami are 5-5
After a win are 9-1

Portland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing Golden State are 5-5
After playing LA Clippers are 4-6
After a win are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the LA Lakers last 10 games on the road
Portland is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
Portland is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games at home

Next up:
LA Lakers home to Dallas, Sunday, March 2
Portland at Golden State, Sunday, March 2

76ers-Warriors Pointspread Pointers

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Golden State Warriors will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Oracle Arena.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Warriors listed as 5½-point favorites versus the 76ers, while the game's total is sitting at 215.

The 76ers built up a 19 point lead at halftime on Wednesday, as they cruised past the Magic 101-89, as 1.5-point underdogs. The 190 points were UNDER the posted total of 202.5.

Andre Miller and Willie Green each tossed in 26 points to lift the 76ers, and Andre Iguodala chipped in with 24 points in the win.

The Warriors played tight defence in the second half of Tuesday's 105-99 win over the SuperSonics. The Warriors failed to cover the 15-point spread, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 222.

Monta Ellis tossed in a game-high 30 points, and Baron Davis added 20 in the victory.

Current streak:
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Philadelphia: 26-32 SU, 30-27-1 ATS
Golden State: 34-22 SU, 23-33 ATS

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Phoenix are 7-3
After playing Orlando are 6-4
After a win are 6-4

Golden State most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Portland are 6-4
After playing Seattle are 4-6
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Next up:
Philadelphia at Phoenix, Saturday, March 1
Golden State home to Portland, Sunday, March 2

76ers-Warriors Pointspread Pointers

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Golden State Warriors will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Oracle Arena.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Warriors listed as 5½-point favorites versus the 76ers, while the game's total is sitting at 215.

The 76ers built up a 19 point lead at halftime on Wednesday, as they cruised past the Magic 101-89, as 1.5-point underdogs. The 190 points were UNDER the posted total of 202.5.

Andre Miller and Willie Green each tossed in 26 points to lift the 76ers, and Andre Iguodala chipped in with 24 points in the win.

Monta Ellis tossed in a game-high 30 points, and Baron Davis added 20 in the victory.

Current streak:
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Philadelphia: 26-32 SU, 30-27-1 ATS
Golden State: 34-22 SU, 23-33 ATS

Next up:
Philadelphia at Phoenix, Saturday, March 1
Golden State home to Portland, Sunday, March 2

Clippers-Nuggets Pointers

The Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Pepsi Center.

Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.

The Clippers lost 82-80 to the Trail Blazers on Wednesday, as 2-point favorites. The 162 points were UNDER the posted total of 182.

Corey Maggette tossed in a game-high 32 points and hauled down six rebounds in a losing effort for the Clippers.

Allen Iverson tossed in a game-high 31 points as the Nuggets roared past the SuperSonics 138-96 last time out. The Nuggets easily covered the 9-point spread, while the combined 234 points sailed OVER the posted total of 213.

Iverson shot 13-for-18 from the field with five rebounds and six assists in the win. Kenyon Martin shot 11-for-14 from the field with 23 points for the Nuggets.

Current streak:
Los Angeles has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Los Angeles: 19-36 SU, 24-31 ATS
Denver: 34-23 SU, 29-28 ATS

Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Detroit are 5-5
After playing Portland are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5

Denver most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Houston are 5-5
After playing Seattle are 3-7
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the LA Clippers last 10 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the LA Clippers last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
LA Clippers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games when playing LA Clippers
Denver is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home

Next up:
LA Clippers home to Detroit, Saturday, March 1
Denver at Houston, Sunday, March 2

Grizzlies-Rockets Preview

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Houston Rockets will meet on the court at Toyota Center on Friday in a battle of division rivals.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Rockets listed as 12½-point favorites versus the Grizzlies, while the game's total is sitting at 194.

Rudy Gay poured in a game-high 36 points in Memphis' 127-113 loss to the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night.

The Suns managed to cover the 11.5-point spread on the road in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the night's posted total (216.5).

The Rockets dominated all facets of the game on Tuesday, as they cruised past the Wizards 94-69. The Rockets covered the 10.5-point spread at home, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 189.

Rafer Alston shot 6-for-11 from the field with 13 points, five rebounds and five assists in the win.

Current streak:
Memphis has lost 6 straight games.
Houston has won 13 straight games.

Team records:
Memphis: 14-43 SU, 24-33 ATS
Houston: 37-20 SU, 31-24-2 ATS

Memphis most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Utah are 4-6
After playing Phoenix are 3-7
After a loss are 1-9

Houston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Denver are 2-8
After playing Washington are 5-5
After a win are 10-0

A few trends to consider:
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Memphis's last 21 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Memphis's last 16 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Memphis's last 10 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Next up:
Memphis home to Utah, Saturday, March 1
Houston home to Denver, Sunday, March 2

Kings-Mavericks Sports Betting Intel

The fans at American Airlines Center will be treated to a game between the Sacramento Kings and the Dallas Mavericks when they take their seats on Friday.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Mavericks listed as 9-point favorites versus the Kings, while the game's total is sitting at 202.

The Kings lost 123-117 to the Hawks last time out, as 6-point road underdogs. The 223 points sailed OVER the posted total of 202.

Brad Miller shot 9-for-16 from the field with 25 points and 13 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.

The Mavericks dropped a 97-94 decision to the Spurs last time out, as 4.5-point road underdogs. The 191 points made it OVER the night's posted total of 181.

Dirk Nowitzki scored 28 points with six rebounds in a losing effort for the Mavericks.

Current streak:
Sacramento has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Sacramento: 26-31 SU, 30-27 ATS
Dallas: 38-20 SU, 24-31-3 ATS

Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Miami are 4-6
After playing Atlanta are 3-7
After a loss are 5-5

Dallas most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing LA Lakers are 9-1
After playing San Antonio are 3-7
After a loss are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Sacramento's last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Sacramento

Next up:
Sacramento home to Miami, Sunday, March 2
Dallas at LA Lakers, Sunday, March 2

Big Brother Frist Betrays Conservative Values

As mentioned in other articles written about the To Bet a Man Square Massacre, I am a Ronald Reagan conservative. Nobody is more dismayed by the Prohibition of the 21^st Century than I am. I painfully acknowledge that the Reagan Revolution has been hijacked by the Big Brother Devolution, which has lead to the basic civil right to place a bet having been infringed upon.

That is unless you want to play bingo in a church hall or bet on the No. 4 horse in the second race. The insurgents in the conservative movement know who butters their bread. John Kyl and Bill Frist may be hypocritical but they are not stupid. Every phony has his price.

What attracted me to the Conservative Movement more than anything else was the foundation of personal responsibility and accountability. The Reagan Revolution saw this across the board whether it was holding convicted criminals accountable, allowing the successful to keep more of their income and by believing the individual and private sector always thrive more without government interference.

Deregulation was commonplace. Most importantly, my brand of conservatism believed in creating new streams of tax revenue. This was in lieu of raising taxes on the rich, defining the wealthy as anyone who makes one dollar more than I do.

In the Baptist Press, Bill Frist wrote a first person account why he knows how to spend your money more responsibly than you do.

The father of the Big Brother movement apparently wants to replace the first letter in his last name with “Ch” because he appoints himself the Savior of you and me. Conservatism’s bastard child aimlessly scribbled, “People who gamble online are almost twice as likely to become problem gamblers as those who gamble in other places. Problem gambling destroys lives and families.”

Frist has chosen not to revive Reaganism, but McCarthyism.

Apparently if you want to bet a four-team $20 parlay, you are destroying your family. Clearly your values are not as family friendly as that of Frist and Thomas Foley. Send perverted messages to minors on a computer and Big Brother wants to cover it up. Bet lunch money on a baseball game and Frist wants to lock you up.

I will be the first to admit, most Americans do not put the utmost priority on their right to gamble, though I’d venture to say the number of enraged is significantly higher than far right wing periphery realizes.

The Big Brother conservatives believe in personal responsibility alright. Your family values are their personal responsibility.

Every opinion poll known to mankind confirms American families believe Frist has failed miserably in leading his party in the Senate. Undeterred, he still believes government needs to be the caretaker of your family. You are too dim-witted to know online gambling is the greatest affront to the American family since that effeminate dinosaur Barney started emasculating our children thanks to tax supported PBS.

Legalizing and taxing online gambling is the perfect marriage for true conservatives. However the beliefs in personal responsibility and new forms of tax revenue have been sabotaged.

The To Bet a Man Square Massacre may not be the reason that Frist and his cronies have approval ratings that hover around the Duke football team’s winning percentage. But his attack on your rights under the subterfuge of family values is at the very least symbolic of the crisis he created. Genuine conservatives, those who should be his core supporters, believe that Frist and Kyl are, how can I say this nicely—self righteous idiots whose subversive skullduggery has incapacitated the movement they pretend to represent.

Ronald Reagan must be turning over in his grave. I’d bet on it, but Jesus Frist won’t let me.

Joe Duffy, a former Young Republican Executive Board member is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, which conservatively speaking is the premier source for sports gambling information.

Jazz-Hornets Preview

The Utah Jazz and the New Orleans Hornets will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at New Orleans Arena.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Hornets listed as 4½-point favorites versus the Jazz, while the game's total is sitting at 205.

The Jazz dominated the fourth quarter with 36 points on Wednesday, as they upended the Pistons 103-95. The Jazz covered the slight 2-point spread, while the 198 points made it OVER the posted total of 197.

Mehmet Okur shot 10-for-18 from the field with 24 points, seven rebounds and four assists for the Jazz.

Chris Paul had 25 points and nine rebounds to lead the Hornets to a 120-103 win over the Suns last time out. The Hornets covered the 3.5-point spread, while the combined score made it OVER the posted total of 216.

David West chipped in with a team-high 27 points and Jannero Pargo added 22 points in the victory.

Team records:
Utah: 37-21 SU, 30-28 ATS
New Orleans: 38-18 SU, 33-22-1 ATS

Utah most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Memphis are 5-5
After playing Detroit are 6-4
After a win are 7-3

New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Washington are 5-5
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a win are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
Utah is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Utah is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Utah
New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans's last 13 games at home
New Orleans is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

Next up:
Utah at Memphis, Saturday, March 1
New Orleans at Washington, Sunday, March 2

Wizards-Bulls Vegas Betting Odds

The Washington Wizards and the Chicago Bulls will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at United Center.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 5½-point favorites versus the Wizards, while the game's total is sitting at 197.

The Wizards fell 94-69 to the Rockets last time out, as 10.5-point underdogs on the road. The combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 189.

Antawn Jamison had 18 points and nine rebounds in a losing effort for the Wizards.

Larry Hughes tossed in a game-high 29 points on Wednesday, as the Bulls downed the Pacers 113-107. The Bulls won the game as a slight 1.5-point underdog on the road, while the 220 points made it OVER the posted total of 209.

Luol Deng scored 16 points, while Ben Gordon chipped in with 15 in the victory.

Team records:
Washington: 27-30 SU, 33-23-1 ATS
Chicago: 23-34 SU, 25-32 ATS

Washington most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing New Orleans are 5-5
After playing Houston are 4-6
After a loss are 2-8

Chicago most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Cleveland are 8-2
After playing Indiana are 7-3
After a win are 0-10

A few trends to consider:
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington

Next up:
Washington home to New Orleans, Sunday, March 2
Chicago at Cleveland, Sunday, March 2

Bobcats-Celtics Preview

The Charlotte Bobcats and the Boston Celtics will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at TD Banknorth Garden.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Celtics listed as 16½-point favorites versus the Bobcats, while the game's total is sitting at 194.

The Bobcats lost 113-89 to the Knicks last time out, as 7.5-point road underdogs. The 202 points made it OVER the posted total of 197.5.

Emeka Okafor shot 5-for-15 from the field with 18 points and 14 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.

Kevin Garnett had a double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds on Wednesday, as the Celtics defeated the Cavaliers 92-87 last time out. The Celtics failed to cover the 9.5-point spread, while the 179 points fell UNDER the posted total of 191.5.

Ray Allen shot 7-for-10 from the field with a team-high 22 points in the win.

Current streak:
Charlotte has lost 4 straight games.
Boston has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Charlotte: 19-38 SU, 21-34-2 ATS
Boston: 44-12 SU, 33-21-2 ATS

Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-4
Before playing Toronto are 5-5
After playing New York are 3-7
After a loss are 1-9

Boston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Atlanta are 2-8
After playing Cleveland are 6-4
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Charlotte

Next up:
Charlotte home to Toronto, Sunday, March 2
Boston home to Atlanta, Sunday, March 2

Timberwolves-Cavaliers Sports Betting Odds

The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Quicken Loans Arena.

NewBodog oddsmakers currently have the Cavaliers listed as 10-point favorites versus the Timberwolves, while the game's total is sitting at 191.

The Timberwolves lost 107-85 to the Raptors last time out, as 11.5-point underdogs. The combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 198.5.

Al Jefferson shot 9-for-12 from the field with 23 points and five rebounds in a losing effort.

The Cavaliers were defeated 92-87 by the Celtics on Wednesday, as 9.5-point underdogs on the road. The 179 points fell UNDER the posted total of 191.5.

LeBron James tossed in a game-high 26 points and Delonte West added 20 in the loss.

Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Minnesota: 12-44 SU, 27-28-1 ATS
Cleveland: 32-26 SU, 27-31 ATS

Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Seattle are 3-7
After playing Toronto are 6-4
After a loss are 5-5

Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Chicago are 6-4
After playing Boston are 6-4
After a loss are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Cleveland is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home

Next up:
Minnesota home to Seattle, Sunday, March 2
Cleveland home to Chicago, Sunday, March 2

Knicks-Hawks Pointspread Pointers

The New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Philips Arena.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Hawks listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Knicks, while the game's total is sitting at 202.

Nate Robinson threw in 22 points to lead the Knicks to a 113-89 win over the Bobcats last time out. The Knicks covered the 7.5-point spread, while the combined 202 points made it OVER the posted total of 197.5.

Jamal Crawford shot 7-for-13 from the field with 20 points, while Zach Randolph added 18 and Quentin Richardson had 17 in the win.

Mike Bibby had 24 points and 12 assists to lead the Hawks past the Kings 123-117 last time out. The Hawks managed to cover the 6-point spread, and the 223 points sailed OVER the posted total of 202.

Joe Johnson chipped in with a game-high 26 points and Josh Childress added 25 for the Hawks.

Team records:
New York: 18-39 SU, 28-28-1 ATS
Atlanta: 24-32 SU, 28-28 ATS

New York most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Orlando are 2-8
After playing Charlotte are 6-4
After a win are 2-8

Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Boston are 4-6
After playing Sacramento are 4-6
After a win are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New York is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against New York
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games when playing New York

Next up:
New York at Orlando, Saturday, March 1
Atlanta at Boston, Sunday, March 2

Pacers-Raptors Preview

The Indiana Pacers and the Toronto Raptors will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Air Canada Centre.

NewBoDog oddsmakers currently have the Raptors listed as 10½-point favorites versus the Pacers, while the game's total is sitting at 207.

The Pacers fell 113-107 to the Bulls last time out, as 1.5-point underdogs. The 220 points made it OVER the posted total of 209.

Mike Dunleavy scored 25 points, while Travis Diener added 22 points and nine assists in the loss.

Chris Bosh dropped a game-high 28 points in leading the Raptors to a 107-85 win over the Timberwolves last time out. The Raptors covered the 11.5-point spread, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 198.5.

Bosh shot 12-for-17 from the field with seven rebounds, and T.J. Ford chipped in with 16 points in the win.

Current streak:
Indiana has lost 3 straight games.
Toronto has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Indiana: 22-36 SU, 26-31-1 ATS
Toronto: 32-24 SU, 33-23 ATS

Indiana most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Milwaukee are 3-7
After playing Chicago are 3-7
After a loss are 2-8

Toronto most recently:
When playing on Friday are 1-9
Before playing Charlotte are 2-8
After playing Minnesota are 3-7
After a win are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana

Next up:
Indiana home to Milwaukee, Sunday, March 2
Toronto at Charlotte, Sunday, March 2

Sports Betting Pages

Friday, February 29, 2008

How Do Handicappers Work Overtime?

Will the Pitching and Defense Cliché Ever Die?

ESPN Fantasy Football Simulations a Tool for Proposition Bettors

Does the Commissioner Want to Send a Stern Message?

Sharpie: 5 Inning Lines the Best Prop Play

Some Things Are Worth Repeating

Futures Bet

College Home Court Advantage Decreasing This Time of Year

Somebody Train These Radio Sports Update Guys

Is Vegas behind the War on Offshore Betting?

Follow Up on When to Specify Pitchers

Is Nothing Sacred?

But Nothing Unsacred

Follow Up on When to Specify Pitchers

Is Nothing Sacred?

But Nothing Unsacred

Vent My Spleen, Part 1

More Shout Outs

We Monitor Bullpens More Closely as Dog Days Approach

Parlays are Par to Lay Off

No Middle Class among Baseball Handicappers

The World Keeps Getting Smaller

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