Thursday, May 13, 2010

Roto World: Pitcher's Report Card For Fantasy Baseball and Vegas Odds

Whether it's for baseball betting or fantasy baseball or beating the MLB baseball odds, here are news and notes for Thursday's games.  

NEW YORK YANKEES @ DETROIT TIGERS

Thursday, May 13, 1:05 p.m. ET

C.C. Sabathia (4-1, 3.04 ERA)

Could big C.C. Sabathia be on his way to a banner year? He's usually a slow starter, sporting a 4.32 career ERA in April, but he reversed the trend this season by going 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA in five April starts. He's 29-14 with a career May ERA more than a run lower than his April mark, so C.C. will draw plenty of sports betting interest this month. He's solid enough at Comerica Park in his career, going 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA, but could struggle against Detroit's top run producers on Thursday. Miguel Cabrera bats .625 with a homer and six RBI over nine career plate appearances against C.C. Magglio Ordonez has three homers and 17 RBI over 61 at-bats against the big fella, too.

Justin Verlander (3-2, 4.50 ERA)

Like Sabathia, flamethrower Justin Verlander shook his usual slow start quicker than normal this season. He's already allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. He's not invincible against the Yanks, sporting a pedestrian 4.36 ERA over six starts against them in his career, but he's a different beast at home. Verlander has a .667 winning percentage at Comerica Park in his career; the last time he faced the Yankees on his own turf, he shut them out for seven innings and walked no batters.

NEW YORK METS @ FLORIDA MARLINS

Thursday, May 13, 7:10 p.m. ET

Johan Santana (3-2, 4.54 ERA)

Is it time we MLB betting sharps accepted Johan Santana as a tier-2 starter? His ERAs over his last five major –league months: 6.19, 1.82, 3.94, 2.08, 11.12. There's plenty of good mixed in there but Santana isn't the consistently dominant force he once was. However, he truly owns the Marlins, going 6-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 65 strikeouts over 54.1 innings all-time.  His 2010 ERA is also largely inflated by a May 2 start at Philly in which he allowed 10 earned runs.

Josh Johnson (3-1, 3.35 ERA)

Is it just me or does poor Josh Johnson get matched up against Johan Santana every time he faces the Mets? The kid continues to fly under the radar despite stellar numbers. He's among a select few hurlers in the game who can miss bats and still avoid walking too many guys. The odds for Thursday's matchup could be a coin flip. Like Santana, Johnson has a phenomenal track record against his opponent. He's 7-1 with a 2.69 ERA over 10 career starts over the Mets. Who takes this one?

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