Beating the Spread, Plus Baseball Betting

Here is a look at one of our previously published "evergreen" articles on sports gaming.

Baseball is winding down and football is ramping up.  So it's time to remind you of some of the blunders that squares make and exploitation that sharpies partake.

The first is to make proper adjustments but avoid throwing long term results and conclusions out the window.  In 2006, we could name it the Notre Dame rule.  Following week one, when they struggled to beat a decent GA Tech team, the chic declared the Irish very vulnerable.  The following week they crushed highly touted Penn State and all of a sudden they were unstoppable.

In their third game, they had their heads handed to them by Michigan and I heard even the talking heads on ESPN Radio predicting four or five losses. Do not base your perception of a team on just the most recent game. Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com says the high number of Joeybagofdonuts betting football forces the oddsmakers to "overcompensate based on short-term results of high-profile teams."

Don't pass up the opportunities that baseball betting presents itself, but remember the poison of the degenerate gambler: going with the team that "needs it more".  Bottom feeding teams and huge underdogs at that, now for the first time in months, have something to play for. 

Not only is the role of spoiler great incentive, but finality of the season reminds most of the players they are fighting for roster spots for the next year and in some cases their careers.  "It's the inferior teams that make the most offseason changes and simply packing it in could prove damaging to a lot of players" points out Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com.  He continued, "Also ran teams in the home stretch as potential killjoys are so often the best value of the entire year".

Now let's get back to football. Most squares consider weather a determining factor when warm weather teams travel to freezing temperatures late in the year.  We have documented in previous articles how cold climate teams playing in 90-degree heat, often in dark jerseys are at an even bigger disadvantage.

With the heat wave, this year could present more opportunities than ever.  We will call it Global Winning.

Joe Duffy's GodsTips are now part of the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.