Gambling In Sports

Selling Plays and Advertising Sportsbooks

A popular FAQ is whether or not there is a conflict of interest in selling plays and accepting sportsbook advertising. Funny how long-term clients never ask that question.

While I don’t know of any scientific number comparisons, the number of clients who bet at sportsbooks is enormously higher than the number that purchase sports service selections. The biggest sportsbooks are looking for volume. They can adjust the line to ensure that there is enough square money to balance the sharp money. Ideally a sportsbook would love to have 50 percent action on each side in every game.  Hence half the money wins every game. To be brutally honest, there are a lot more crap handicappers out there than good ones and the crap handicappers send clients to help sportsbooks get balanced action. 

There is a famous radio host who likes to say, “I am equal time”.  Not that we want to sound too braggadocios but we are balance to the commonplace sucker play.

We always urge line shopping, but we would only recommend a sportsbook that we personally place bets.  Having a reliable sportsbook that pays, helps our business not hinders it. 

Truthfully, the ethical reasons aside, I don’t think there are realistic benefits to putting out a lousy product and somehow trying to “win for losing”. We have the largest number of repeat clients in the industry.  We are paid on referrals by sportsbooks and would never, ever accept a commission on losses. Those handicappers that do accept commission on losses arguably have crossed the line.

And finally if anyone really thinks a sports service is giving away ruse plays to benefit the books, just bet against the plays.  It will be fool’s gold if you do it with Godspicks, but ultimately we are only responsible for the plays we release, not how you bet them.

Key Numbers in Football

We always stress the importance of line shopping, but this so much more true when it comes to key numbers.  Key numbers are in short a disproportionate margin of victory falls on that number.  In football, the top two key numbers are three and seven.  Historically about 1-of-6 games in the NFL have a margin of victory of three points.  Hence the difference between getting or laying three and 3.5 is much more significant from a line shopping standpoint then 3.5 and 5.5.

However the aforesaid latter move is important too as four is a minor key number.  In college the margins can be larger, but any numerator of three, seven and ten are key numbers.

This is why sportsbooks prefer to adjust juice on a key number, especially three in the NFL rather than move the line. In other words if most of the money is on a favorite of three points, instead of moving the line to 3.5 the books an overwhelming majority of time will move it to -3 (-120) instead.

An NFL move off of three points, except in the case of injuries, is now almost unheard of.

Sharp shoppers and players must be responsive to the ramifications of a line move that crosses a key number.  A pure steam move (no injury or extenuating circumstances moved the line) that puts a game on or off a key number will effect the probability factor of a game covering.  For us it often turns a bet into a pass or passing on a game into a play.  But always shop so you won’t have to drop.  

Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com  is the top source for NFL picks, college football winners and more. When it comes to beating the NFL odds, college football odds and the sportsbooks in baseball, college basketball and the NBA, GodsTips is the nation’s premier sports service.  Free spread winners daily are OffshoreInsiders.com