Injuries: Good Short Term, Bad Long Term
Many moons past, a good handicapper with so/so marketing named "George the Greek" told me of a theory that made him a lot of money in the NBA. Years later, I saw Dean Smith utter similar sentiments about college basketball.
The premise is that when a star player is out with an injury, the team will rally around that injury in the first game. Losing the player does not hurt until the ensuing games. Obviously Smith was not speaking from a gambling perspective, but from our standpoint assuming it is known that he will not play, the oddsmakers adjust and often overcompensate.
It's normal for the foe, especially in a long NBA season where motivation is fleeting, to get a false sense of security over the opponents missing star. Thus, while one team is rallying around adversity, the other team is playing down to the short handed squad.
However, there is a big law of diminishing return after the first game and in fact it is then time to go against the short-handed team.
The Latest Handicapping Weapon of the Information Age
One of the facts we always stress is how elite handicappers use the Information Age to get the edge. Luckily with a lot of effort, the information is there to stay ahead of the curve. It's been a great year for that as now 90 percent of all lined colleges have their SID releases available online. Hopefully by football, those numbers will increase. The NBA on their own website has the pregame notes available for the sharpie to use. We've said endless times the explosion in popularity of fantasy sports is a boon for the gambler because the information is often overlapping. The quality of such continues to rise.
Now the latest is this new MLB channel on XM Radio. I have to admit, so far I am thoroughly impressed with the quality of real time applicable analysis they have had in the spring. I am extremely optimistic it's going to be another Godsend (no pun intended) for sharp players this baseball season.
Coaches Fired in Midseason
Whether firing a coach was a good move or not long-term is for the pundits to debate. However from a handicapping standpoint, more times than not, ridding of a coach in the middle of the year will pay short term dividends.
Of course a foreteller must scratch the surface and be aware of the reasons behind the rhyme. An overwhelming majority of the time, a coach is fired because a team is greatly underachieving and usually is in the midst of a slump. Throwing a coach to the wolves more times than not is the wake-up call the might-have-beens need.
Most importantly is whether or not the non-performers had been pointing the finger of blame at the mentor. So many times the malcontents will in the short term, raise their level of play several notches to absolve themselves for the recent dereliction.
Even when players use the old "it's not his fault" canned response, the old "90 percent of the game is half mental" angle applies. Any shake-up is a temporary positive.
Duffy's plays are part of the Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show and Grogan's Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss. Approved sportsbooks are at www.linetrackers.com
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