College Football Pick: North Texas vs. Ball State

It's time for American tackle football, the regular season edition. One of the most appealing games for football bettors is North Texas at Ball State. The Cardinals are a 16.5 point favorite at Bet Online.

At GodsTips, we are going with North Texas and the points. Here is the football betting analysis:

Remember one of our most important Golden Rules and one that the square player cannot grasp is this concept: uncertainty is the enemy of the oddsmaker and hence the ally of the sharp player.

The sportsbooks despise the fact that both teams are debuting new QBs. It's certainly a downgrade for the big chalk and all indications are that it's an upgrade for the significant underdogs.

North Texas QB Riley Dodge did run the same offense system in high school.  He can only improve a Mean Green offense that was dead last nationally each of the last two years in offense.

Those numbers are a bit deceptive as North Texas has played a BCS heavy non-conference schedule during that span including Oklahoma, LSU, and Kansas State.

Dodge is no slouch. He is a former Class 5A Offensive Player of the Year in the capital of high school football Texas.

On the other hand, Ball State's Kelly Page must replace NFL draft pick Nate Davis. They must also supplant four starters on the offensive front; three were first team All-MAC. The Cardinals offensive line has just one experienced starter in left guard Mike Switzer.

To top it all off, Ball State also has a new coach in Stan Parrish, so they are a team in transition.

North Texas also has their share of team speed that will give Ball State fits. In addition, they return running back Cam Montgomery, who rushed for 928 yards, so they have some balance to keep defenses honest against their Blue Chip signal caller.

Ball State has to use this game as a tune-up with so many new players and a new coach. North Texas is fighting for respectability, so keeping the score close is very much a building block for them.

While not quite a "Golden Rule" as stated above, a very strong and profitable rule of thumb is teams coming off one of their best years ever are great fades early the next year. Rutgers last year is a perfect example.

Well Ball State is coming off their first undefeated regular season ever. There will be a big hangover versus a team that only wants to keep the score close.

While we can't go so far as to bet this game on the moneyline, there are plenty of ingredients for an upset.

Free pick: North Texas +16.5.

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