Free NFL Pick: Broncos at Raiders

The Denver Broncos travel to the Bay Area to take on the Oakland Raiders. Denver is a 1.5 point favorite.  The top expert in beating the NFL betting line GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com says to take the Broncos. Here is why:  

As we said many times, Denver is going to be undervalued for the early part of the year because few realize how getting rid of Jay Cutler was a huge addition by subtraction. Cutler is the most overrated QB in the NFL since Jeff George, though today’s opponent JaMarcus Russell is insistent on grabbing that title.

The Broncos have the most improved defense in the league because they are no longer the worst team in the NFL in the most overlooked category: incompletions on offense. It’s certainly not a disregarded statistic among professional bettors.  

Last year the Broncos defense was always on the field, now they spending more time where defenses perform best: the sidelines.

Meanwhile Correll Buckhalter is one of the most underrated players in the NFL; overlooked because he never seems to finish a year. However, he’s healthy now and averaging 8.4 yards per carry. Yes we know Knowshown Moreno missed practice Friday, but he should play, giving the Broncos a great under-the-radar 1-2 punch. Again, this two headed monster is helping keep the defense off the field, the polar opposite of last year.

Forcing JaMarcus Russell to make bad decisions is the key to beating Oakland. Well Denver OLB Elvis Dumervil had four sacks last week. Denver will often clog up the box and force Russell to pass. Incredibly he has only eight completions to wideouts this season, six to a rookie Louis Murphy. Russell’s inability to read his progressions and unmitigated incompetence make him easy to scheme against.

Yes Nnamdi Asomugha is a great shutdown corner for Oakland, but he can only cover one guy in Denver’s three-receiver set. With Brandon Marshall keeping his head on for the time being, he will keep Asomugha busy. This will open up the field for the rest of the receiving corps. 

The Raiders are also without RG Robert Gallery, a key loss indeed. The Broncos have been very good on both sides of the ball.

Denver is getting 6.2 yards per play against teams normally allowing 5.8 while allowing 4.5 yards per play to teams normally getting 4.9. This includes holding squads to 2.9 yards per rush, .8 yards below their average.

Compare that to the Raiders, a team that gets 3.8 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.2, 5.7 yards per pass to 6.4 and 4.7 yards per play to 5.2.

The pick: Denver -1.5 at BetUs Sportsbook.

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