God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 22

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Vent My Spleen, Part 1

The first 21 Tid-Bets were either discussing strategy or commentary on social issues related to gambling.  But I have to do something I can’t stand: whine a little.

As long time clients know, we more than hold our own when it comes to winning more than we lose.  Yet over the last three years, when a baseball game goes into extra innings or a hockey game into OT, we have no chance.  I don’t think any logic can explain our polar opposite ROI when it comes to regulation and overtime games.

Thank Godspicks there are a lot more games that end in regulation than overtime.  But whomever out there has the voodoo doll with my handsome mug on it, please tell me what I’ve ever done to you to make you put the overtime whammy on me.

I know life’s not fair, but this OT/extra inning jinx just isn’t justified.

More Shout Outs

Like we said, we never hesitate to shout out to other gambling sites when they deserve it.  Congratulations to Eog.com for landing professional oddsmaker, the respected Russ Culver to produce exclusive content for them.  Personally I’m looking forward to see what it will be.

Russ was formally associated with Vegas Insider, which does a good job with injuries.  It’s a “cheat sheet” for us to ensure we didn’t miss key player statuses, but we always dig deeper to corroborate.  However VI is a nice starting point.

My hat is off to Stevie Vincent of Knockoutpicks.com, who was my editor during my many years of broadcasting the various scorephone “Tailgate Parties”.  No surprise to those of us who knew him and worked with him, he is quickly becoming the most respected “numbers guy” in handicapping. But he tells us even he looks beyond his “forensic handicapping” and loves MLBinjuries.com for accurate player injury information on the diamond. 

We Monitor Bullpens More Closely as Dog Days Approach

One could reasonably say the reason our extra innings record is not close to being on par with our overall record has to do with we don’t use bullpen statistics as much as some of the few elite handicappers do.  Of course that wouldn’t explain our NHL overtime jinx. Nor does it end the mystery as to why the extra frame struggles started three years ago, after two decades of picking winners.   

But regardless, with the season going deeper and hot, humid weather approaching; we do weigh bullpen performance, both overall and recent more than we do early in the year. Like starting pitching, we evaluate WHIP a notch above ERA. 

Of course number of innings pitched recently by the closer and top two setup men is huge as well. We’ve written articles about the virtues of boxscores in handicapping and arguably when it comes to analyzing bullpens, that facet of research doesn’t get bigger.

There will be instances and not that infrequent when a closer pitches three days in a row, often in 90 degree weather.  This is actually the type of morsel that the baseball channel on XM Radio has really helped us out with, not to mention listening to the hometown broadcasts on such. Also the fantasy baseball sites are yet another fact checking reinforcement and we are more and more liking daily write-ups on MLB.com for bullet points for the ah, you know, serious baseball fan.

Today’s free winner (no password needed), late breaking information as game time approaches, and advanced news and notes are at JoeDuffy.net  Premium picks are at www.godspicks.com