Yards Per Point Stat Proves to Be Goldmine After All; Not How You May Think Though

Each and every season all sports should be a learning experience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves, evaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the list of strategy refinements this football season was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist's companies. I believe that was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by points scored. On defense, it's yards allowed divided by points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not waste yardage or "leave points on the field" so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful defensive stands.  However, conventional thinking (handicapping's ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one would be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was and how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements I've made in my handicapping over the decades.

We've written many articles on how we measure the accuracy and validity of a team's performance. We don't have the time and space to go over every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets more yards "wins") where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others "rank" teams by total yards per game in passing, rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to the cumulative average of their opponents to date.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com, but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team's Vegas/offshore value is most affected by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated they are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable than poor production. Remember, it's not like one can retroactively bet stats. The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal of fortune—literally.

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet) the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially, it proved to be a great a great way to "buy low and sell high" and apply it to handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward to next football season.  

No need to wait until next football season to bet on sports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.  With March Madness betting around the corner, note that Duffy's prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr. March and the Lord of the Dance.