Sunday, March 21, 2010

Syracuse-Gonzaga, Michigan State-Maryland Vegas Odds and Point Spread Picks

Top sports handicappers are unloading on the top NCAA Tournament spreads and picks and super sportsbook Bodog previews today's card.

OK, West Region top seed Syracuse didn't miss starting center Arinze Onuaku in Friday's first-round game with No. 16 Vermont, but it would seem the Orange will feel Onuaku's absence for Sunday's second round game with No. 8 Gonzaga in Buffalo. SU has opened as a 7.5-point favorite on the NCAA Basketball Odds at Bodog.

Syracuse (29-4, 20-9 ATS) had little trouble with Vermont, 79-56, as five players scored in double figures for the ninth time this season. A 20-2 opening run basically never had Friday's game in question. Syracuse shot 54.5 percent for the game and hit 10 of 22 from beyond the arc. Kris Joseph, the Big East Sixth Man of the Year, started for Onauku and had eight and eight rebounds in 33 minutes. Onuaku, who shot nearly 67 percent from the field this year, is considered doubtful to play Sunday as he tries to recover from that leg injury suffered in the Big East Tournament opening loss to Georgetown.

Gonzaga (27-6, 16-11-2 ATS) beat Florida State 67-60 on Friday despite blowing an 18-point lead. The Bulldogs shot 21 of 42 from the field (50 percent) to end FSU's streak at 67 games of holding opponents to under 50 percent. The Zags also outrebounded Florida State 38-32 (the Noles had been plus 5.5 on the season). Gonzaga now looks to join Saint Mary's as WCC teams to reach the Sweet 16.

However, Gonzaga seems to have two things going against it Sunday: Syracuse is playing just 140 miles from its campus and it's a 9:10 a.m. Pacific time tip-off for Gonzaga. Plus it's hard to prepare for Syracuse's tricky 2-3 zone on such a quick turnaround. The Bulldogs won an 8-9 game last year and then ran into top-seeded North Carolina in the Round of 32 and were no match.

I would argue that Sunday's second-round matchup between No. 5 Michigan State and No. 4 Maryland is the most evenly matched game in the Round of 32, and in fact this game is currently a pick'em on Bodog's NCAA Basketball Odds  

The Spartans (25-8, 12-20 ATS) beat New Mexico State 70-67 on Friday night behind Kalin Lucas' career-high 25 points – MSU blew a 13-point halftime lead and got a bit of a gift at the free-throw line in the final seconds. However, Spartans starting guards Lucas and Chris Allen were both injured in the game. Lucas tweaked his ankle but played through it, while Allen hurt his right ankle with about five minutes left. He didn't return to the game but expects to play on Sunday.

But if Allen is limited that could be key because he is MSU's best perimeter defender and likely would draw the assignment on ACC Player of the Year Greivis Vasquez of the Terps. Maryland (24-8, 17-10 ATS) beat Houston 89-77 on Friday despite Vazquez hitting just 5-for-13 from the field. Jordan Williams stepped up with career-highs of 21 points and 17 rebounds on Friday, but the Terps won't beat Michigan State if Vasquez doesn't have a big game. Maryland also outrebounded Houston 50-29, but Michigan State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country (plus-8.8 margin, second in the country), so that won't happen again. The Spartans will slow this game down and won't let Vasquez beat them. If Lucas and Allen are OK, they should win.

Friday's MSU win over NMSU was the Spartans' first NCAA Tournament game decided by three points or fewer since they beat Maryland 60-58 in 2003.

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