NFL Sportsbook Preview: Saints vs. Vikings Odds

Rex Ryan’s New York Jets have gone from #5 seed to a step away from the Super Bowl by virtue of two road playoff wins.

The only thing standing in the way now of his potentially prophetic prediction is a victory in Indianapolis. Certainly that is no small task, though New York accomplished that exact feat four weeks ago to end the Indianapolis Colts’ bid at a perfect season.

Indianapolis of course, pulled many its starters in the second half of that game to the dismay of fans, bettors, and experts alike.

In this week’s AFC title rematch, the Colts will play at full strength for the full 60 minutes, and are consequently listed as an 8-point favorite, and getting the backing of over 60% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.

The reason for the controversial move by Colts’ head coach Jim Caldwell was to get to this point with his team’s health and eventual goal intact, that being a trip to Miami and Super Bowl XLV.

His club is the AFC’s #1 seed, and playing for the Conference Championship for the first time in three years, coincidentally, the last time they took home the Lombardi Trophy, also from Miami.

The Colts, led by NFL MVP Peyton Manning, opened as 7.5-point favorites, the first time they’ve been favored by more than a TD since November 8^th. They are just 4-5 ATS at home this season and 8-14 ATS in their L22 as hosts.

However, Indianapolis is on a 21-9 ATS run at home vs. good defensive teams yielding 17 PPG or fewer, and is facing a second straight playoff opponent who could be fatigued from consecutive weeks on the road.

The Jets are 7-3 SU & ATS on the road in ’09-10 and come in having won seven of their L8, both SU & ATS. During that stretch, the league’s top ranked rush offense has gained 182.6 YPG on the ground.

Nobody believed Ryan a few weeks ago when he said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl XLIV, but maybe now it’s officially time to take notice.

The teams have split the last eight head-to-head meetings SU, with the Jets owning a 5-3 ATS edge since ’00. The most recent playoff meeting was in 2003, a 41-0 win by New York at home, a game that still stands as Manning’s worst playoff loss.

Here’s what StatFox’s Steve Makinen had to say about the AFC Championship:

Take a look at this system: Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*). When it’s all said and done, I am uncomfortable going with the short end of the QB mismatch in such a big game. I could see a 20-3 type of game like last week, or a 20-17 OT affair. Either way, I’d feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. UNDER.

Play: Jets-Colts UNDER 40.5

Brett Favre returns to the site of his biggest career wins ever, hoping to put his Minnesota Vikings in position to reach similar lofty heights.

Favre won his only Super Bowl in New Orleans while with the Green Bay Packers, and now leading that team’s biggest rival, he can put himself in position to capture an improbable second title.

His opponent, the New Orleans Saints are at home and favored by 3.5-points at Sportsbook.com. Betting action is split fairly evenly on the side, but nearly 75% of bettors expect this game to fly over the total of 53.

Favre was phenomenal in last Sunday’s rout of Dallas, throwing a career playoff high four TD’s, adding to what has been a MVP-caliber season.

Getting past this game won’t be easy though. The league’s best offense awaits. Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees seemed to pick up where he left off about six weeks ago with a 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Round.

The Saints are 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season while scoring 33.2 PPG. Minnesota is just 4-4 SU & ATS on the road, but is also capable of putting up points, 29.2 PPG thus far.

You have to figure Saints coach Sean Payton would love to get into a shootout though, as he is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. very good offensive teams scoring >=27 PPG as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score in those games was NEW ORLEANS 40.5, OPPONENT 24.3.

This game of course, is unfamiliar territory for both franchises, as neither has ever won a Super Bowl, and the winner will get the chance to do so in two weeks. The Vikings haven’t been in the conference title game since the infamous loss to Atlanta at home in ’99.

For as comfortable as he looked on Sunday at the Metrodome, Favre hasn’t won a road playoff game since the ’98 NFC title game. New Orleans is playing for a conference title for the second time ever (’07 loss at Chicago). The Vikings own a 4-0 SU & ATS edge in the head-to-head series since ’02, including a 30-27 win at the Superdonw in October ’08.

Here is StatFox Steve’s take on the NFC title tilt:

Check out this prolific Money Line FoxSheets Super Situation that will be in play for Sunday’s game: Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 28 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. (31-1 since 1983.) (96.9%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*). I don’t like the way Minnesota has transformed into a one-dimensional club, and with Brett Favre’s recent road playoff history, I don’t think he can keep up with Drew Brees here. Saints win, 34-20.

Play: New Orleans -3.5