Friday, January 22, 2010

NBA Picks: Saturday Odds

January isn't just for Super Bowl odds, the NBA season is in full swing and games are becoming more predictable. This Saturday, the Orlando Magic head up to Charlotte to take on Gerald Wallace and the Bobcats.  

Orlando Magic (27-15) @ Charlotte Bobcats (21-19)

Projected Bookmaker Odds (Bookmaker Reviews): Orlando -1

Projected Sportsbook Odds for Total: 205

Let's take a look at the matchups

PG: Jameer Nelson vs. Raymond Felton

-         Jameer Nelson is banged up and nursing a bum shoulder and knee. Nelson is bravely gutting out the season playing through pain. He has yet to regain that all-star form we saw him in before he was lost for the season (shoulder) last year. While his efforts are admirable, his play hasn't been very good.

-         Ray Felton has struggled since being drafted to find his game in the NBA. He has shown flashes of the brilliance that led him to a NCAA Championship with UNC.  This year his game has improved in all aspects and, in the last two months, has been fantastic as have been the Bobcats.

Advantage: Bobcats

SG: Vince Carter vs. Stephen Jackson

-         Vince Carter is having an awful season in his first year in Orlando. Over the last two months he is shooting 25% from three and 35% overall. He has not meshed with his new teammates and his signing is looking more and more disastrous. Carter also disappears for long stretches during games and forces up bad shots he used to hit when he was good.

-         Stephen Jackson has been well travelled in the NBA and has worn out his welcome in all his locations. Well he's new with Charlotte and they love him right now. This month he is averaging 24.6 points per game, is active in transition and plays solid defense.

Advantage: Bobcats

SF: Matt Barnes vs. Gerald Wallace

-         Matt Barnes has really turned it on this month shooting an incredible 57.8% (more than twice as good as Vince Carter). He has been active on the boards to the tune of 7.8 rebounds a game while getting a steal and two assists per game in January. His size and defensive skill makes him the designated guy to cover the other teams' best offensive (non-big man) threat.

-         Gerald Wallace is going to be that guy for Barnes Saturday. Wallace is having an All-Star season averaging 18.6 points 11.3 rebounds 1.9 assists 1.7 steals and 1.23 blocks a game. His high-flying dunks often change the momentum of games. Wallace has been even better than those numbers in January.

Advantage: Bobcats

PF: Rashard Lewis vs. Boris Diaw

-         Lewis has struggled so far this season. When he is on, Lewis, who was an all-star last season, can be a dynamic player. A 6'-10" forward with unlimited range, Shardy Lew has the ability to cover four positions and has a great nickname that no one else uses but me.

-         Diaw should not be a starter anymore in the NBA. The Bobcats lack a true PF. Diaw is a 35% shooter from three and is not what he once was defensively.

Advantage: Magic

C: Dwight Howard vs. Nazr Mohammed

-         Howard is the best center in the game. Defensively in the paint, there are none more dominant. Offensively, his game is evolving including bank shots and post moves instead of just dunks. The best is yet to come for Superman.

-         Nazr Mohammed has been thrust into starter's duty with Tyson Chandler in a walking boot. Mohammed is a good backup but doesn't have the size or skill to compete with Howard.

Advantage: Magic

Bench: J.J. Redick, Jason Williams, Martin Gortat, Ryan Anderson, Mickael Pietrus vs D.J. Augustin, DeSagnana Diop, Derrick Brown, Stephen Graham

-         The Magic bench is among the deepest in the league. Ryan Anderson and J.J. Redick are 3 point sharpshooters, Jason "white chocolate" Williams is playing well and Gortat is a solid backup center and Pietrus is a great defender and good shooter.

-         The Bobcats bench is very thin as D.J. Augustin is a good developing young PG and the rest are lucky to be in the NBA.

Advantage: Magic

Online Betting Outlook & Pick: The Magic are too deep for the Bobcats. Gerald Wallace trying to dunk on Dwight Howard will probably be the highlight of this game. The Bobcats are on fire and are at home. The Magic will take advantage of the lack of toughness down low and use Howard's improved passing out of double and triple teams with their bevy of sharpshooters.

The game should be close, but without Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard and the Magic should be too much. Take the under and Magic money line if the spread creeps up to the -3, 4 range.

Final: Magic 94 - Bobcats 90

 

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