Memphis Grizzlies (25-19) @ San Antonio Spurs (26-18)
With the big game only a little more than a week away, the Super Bowl odds and NFL picks are getting most of the focus while many other important games are flying under the radar. This Friday, in one such game, the Memphis Grizzlies travel down to the Alamo to take on Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs.
Sportsbook outlook:
Spread: Spurs -4
Over/Under: 198
Money Lines: Grizzlies +120, Spurs -150
Let’s take a look at the matchups in this one:
PG: Mike Conley Jr. vs. George Hill
Conley in his third year out of Ohio State has been solid this season with his most notable improvement being his lights out three point shooting (45% on 111 attempts). His shot gets better every year he plays. His 10 points and 5 assists a game are not indicative of his impact he has as his ball handling skills are not as important with the bevy of ball-handlers on this team.
George Hill will be starting this game in all likelihood after Tony Parker went down with what appeared to be a badly rolled ankle which he suffered in the third quarter of a blowout of the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday night. Hill is a solid backup, but Parker is the driving force behind this offense and would have been a matchup nightmare for the defensively challenged Conley.
Advantage: Memphis
SG: O.J. Mayo vs. Manu Ginobili
Mayo has developed quickly before our eyes and is maybe only a year away from being an all-star in the NBA. Averaging 18.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists and 1.25 steals, Mayo has shown why he was so coveted out of USC. His length and speed on defense will be on display as he takes on one of the league’s most creative and offensively gifted 2-guards.
Manu Ginobili has been bitten by the injury bug again this season and issues with his shins are causing Manu some speed and lift and his game has noticeably suffered. The Spurs will need him to play up to the best of his abilities in this one as he has an incredibly tough defensive assignment in Mayo and will have to be good to beat him defensively. Manu when healthy is almost unstoppable, but he is not but will rely on his upper-echelon court awareness and wealth of experience in this battle.
Advantage: Even
SF: Rudy Gay vs. Richard Jefferson
Rudy Gay has emerged this season as one of the best small forwards in the game. He has added a variety of moves to his arsenal this season and has the penchant for taking games over late. His incredible wingspan and speed make him a challenge to drive against and hard to shoot over. Averaging 20.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.45 steals a game, Rudy Gay is good enough right now to make the trip to Dallas Stadium for the all-star game (*reserves announced after writing) and deserves it.
RJ has had a tough season in his first with the San Antonio Spurs. He simply has not been the offensive spark they thought they were getting when trading for him in the off-season. With 12.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists a game with 35.7% three point shooting on 112 attempts, RJ simply hasn’t gotten the job done and the Spurs are looking for trades to get someone who can still score, the way RJ once was able to.
Advantage: Memphis
PF: Zack Randolph vs Tim Duncan
Zeebo should certainly get the nod to go to Dallas for the all-star game. His gaudy 21 points, 11.6 boards and 2 assists don’t even really tell the story. The 4.6 offensive rebounds a game have been very telling of Zack’s hard-work and reinvention. As a Knicks fan who watched this guy for the greater part of 2 years, his effort-level is at an all-time high that I have never seen and he has become the emotional leader of this squad.
Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward (and often mistaken for a center) in the game, maybe of all-time…and he’s still doing it. Coming off a masterful 21 points, 27 rebounds and 6 assists night against the 29-15 Atlanta Hawks, Duncan now has a challenge in the reenergized Randolph. Expect “The Big Fundamental” to be up for the challenge and to be a force down low for the young slashers of the Grizz. Duncan is still the best and neither F Randolph, nor C Gasol move well enough to score consistently on the great Timmy D.
Advantage: Spurs
C: Marc Gasol vs. Antonio McDyess
The little brother of Pau Gasol, Marc has finally arrived on the scene in the NBA. He was an MVP in Spain, and is showing that pedigree here in the NBA. Looking slim and trim, at least by comparison to last year, Gasol has developed a rhythm with F Zack Randolph down in the paint and is a good passer down low. Averaging 15.1 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists, Gasol is fast becoming a top center in the NBA.
Antonio McDyess has been around the league for a long time. While Tim Duncan will play offense at PF, he will play beneath the basket on defense. McDyess will likely have guard Zack Randolph if he shoots from the perimeter. Dice has struggled this season with his productivity, but has played better of late with 31 points in the last two games. Still, Dice is way past his prime and only plays 25 minutes a game, tops.
Advantage: Grizzlies
Bench: Jamaal Tinsley, Sam Young, DeMarre Carroll, Hasheem Thabeet vs. Keith Bogans, DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner, Roger Mason
The Grizzlies don’t really use their bench all that much. Tinsley and Young have played the most recently at around 15 minutes but this team is young and they play lots of minutes. The Grizzlies would be smart to trade for a veteran forward if they want to succeed in the playoffs.
The Spurs bench will be a little short with George Hill having to start but they have good role players in shooters Keith Bogans and Matt Bonner and Roger Mason with rookie DeJuan Blair being a force on the boards.
Advantage: Spurs
Prediction: The Spurs playing without Tony Parker at the helm is going to be a problem against a strong Grizzlies squad. Being at home will help the Spurs but their strength of rebounding and outside shooting does not match up well with the Grizzlies with no Tony Parker. Parker was the guy who could slash into the paint and breakdown the defense opening up shots for the 3-point shooters. I don’t think Jefferson and a hobbled Manu can fill that void against the young and athletic Grizzlies.
Final: Memphis 92- San Antonio 88
5dimes review: Take the Grizzlies and the under.
