With the trade deadline likely to change some of the names and faces around the league, we will have a one-sided matchup regardless on Thursday when two teams at the opposite ends of the Eastern Conference will face off in Washington when the Capitals host the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Tampa Bay Lightning (26-25-11, 63 points 11th in Eastern Conference) @ Washington Capitals (41-13-8, 90 points 1st in Eastern Conference)
NHL Odds (*note lines are approximate as they have not been posted at the time of writing)
Spread: Capitals -1.5 (+165), Lightning +1.5 (- 180)
Total: 6.5
Money Line: Capitals -290, Lightning + 230
Key Factors:
Bronze Medal: Goaltending
The Capitals recalled goalie Semyon Varlamov from the AHL on March 1st. Varlamov took the starting job from Theodore last year at the end of the season, but lost it back to him this year. Varlamov has played only once since early December, but he will be in the rotation and may start this game. If it is Jose Theodore, it matters little as neither is to be considered as elite or even anywhere above average. The Capitals win because of unreal offense, not their goaltending.
The Lightning got shelled 7-2 on Tuesday. Goalie Antero Nittymaki gave up six goals including four in the first eight and a half minutes of the 3rd period before being pulled for Mike Smith. The two have battled for the top spot with Nittymaki having the edge…until this recent disaster. Smith will likely not be moved now at the deadline. Neither of the two is very good or consistent.
Betting Services: This all adds up to what should be a high-scoring affair with the lackluster goaltending on both sides; Take the over.
Advantage: Even
Silver Medal: Star Power
The Capitals have a front line that is possibly the best in the NHL. With NHL points leader Alexander Ovechkin (42 G, 47A, 89 points…missed 8 games), Nicklas Backstrom; tied for 4th in points (26 G, 50A, 76 points) and Alexander Semin; t-13th in points (30 G, 35 A…missed 9 games), this line is hard to stop. Washington also has the top scoring defenseman in the league, Mike Green (14 G, 46A, 60 points). Tomas Fleischman, Mike Knuble and Brooks Laich all have over 40 points and are skilled enough to be on a lesser team's front line. These great players have led the Capitals to the point they are at now with a commanding lead in the standings.
The Lightning has had a disappointing season from Captain Vincent LeCavailier who has only 15 goals and 40 assists on the season. Those aren't terrible numbers but they are a noticeable decline from previous years. Martin St. Louis has put together another strong season with on 22 goals and 50 assists and is tied for the team lead in points with 2nd year emerging star, Steven Stamkos. Stamkos was the number one overall pick a few years back and now is amongst the league leaders in points (t-6th) and goals (4th). His play, along with that of the grinding winger Steve Downie (37 points, +17, 170 penalty minutes), have gotten the Lightning into playoff contention. USA Olympian Ryan Malone had a hot start this season and has 21 goals and 44 points on the year.
By comparison, the Capitals players are a little better and more numerous than that of the Lightning.
Advantage: Capitals
Gold Medal: Defense
The Capitals defense is led by Mike Green who is t-19th overall in the league in points as well as leading the defensemen in the league. Joining Green on the blue-line are veterans Tom Poti, Jeff Schultz and Shaone Morrisonn. This isn't the best defense in the league, and they will look to add at today's deadline, but they are and have been good enough.
The Lightning is much maligned on defense. They're led by Kurtis Foster and rookie 19 year old, Victor Hedman. Mattias Ohlund and Andrej Meszaros are veterans, but they are on the decline.
The point here is the Capitals need to face either a hot goalie or good skilled set of defensemen to matchup with the top two lines. The Lightning has no one of that capability.
Advantage: Capitals
Prediction:
The Capitals will look to victimize the Lightning much like the Flyers did Tuesday. Without a hot goaltender, the likes of Ovechkin and Backstrom will make easy work of the Lightning.
Final: Washington 6 – Lightning 3
Sportsbook Review: Take the Capitals and the Over
