It's a great sports betting weekend with the NBA playoffs and NHL playoffs match-ups going deeper. It's also the Run for the Roses and super book Bodog has a series of previews.
The final field of 20 is set for Derby 136 — without the potential star ESKENDEREYA and without Sunland Derby winner ENDORSEMENT. Both were scratched on Sunday and Wednesday respectively due to injuries.
Their defections let the filly DEVIL MAY CARE in the race along with 50-1 shots BACKTALK and HOMEBOYKRIS. And we have seen enough of recent Derbies to know that any horse who qualifies for this 1-1/4 mile classic has a chance to get lucky.
Speaking of lucky, or better yet speaking of unlucky, Lookin At Lucky's drew post #1 in a race that can be a cavalry charge in the run to the first turn. The other top rated California horse, Santa Anita Derby winner, SIDNEY'S CANDY, drew into the parking lot (post #20). Below are comments on each horse, including how they have trained at Churchill Downs in recent weeks.
Best of Luck to the horses, jockeys and all Bodog Beat readers!
$2 MILLION KENTUCKY DERBY #136. Grade-1, for 3 yr olds at 1-1/4 miles. . . POST TIME 6:24 EDT.
# 1: Lookin At Lucky: A very game, very classy colt with late speed. Likely to endure tough trip from difficult post. Worked well enough to run his race.
# 2: Ice Box: A deep closer who won the Florida Derby by a nose; needs the fast pace we expect to fire his best and he did work sharply over a sloppy track this week.
# 3: Noble's Promise: Apparently overcame his lung infection to work well twice over the track, has been close to Lookin At Lucky often, but 1-1/4 miles may be a touch too far.
# 4: Super Saver: Fast horse with expert Derby jockey (Calvin Borel). Super Saver has won here and trained as well as any horse in the field. Must avoid getting caught in the speed duel.
# 5: Line of David: A fast front-running type with good and a bad work over the track, leaving some doubt about current condition. One of two probable front runners.
# 6: Stately Victor: Deep closer with poor dirt form who surprised Blue Grass stakes on Polytrack at Keeneland. Training was yes-and-no on a track two miles from Churchill.
# 7 American Lion: Front running winner of Illinois Derby in his first start on dirt, trained well here and is going to be part of the speed brigade. Bred well for slop and distance.
# 8 Dean's Kitten: Entrymate to Stately Victor won the Lane's End on Polytrack in March and might be a turf horse in the wrong race. Works were uninspiring.
# 9 Make Music For Me: Another turf specialist. Was close to Lookin At Lucky three times last year on synthetic tracks. Never saw him train, but he is bred well for wet tracks.
# 10 Paddy O'Prado: Was second in the Blue Grass after pressing the pace and taking the lead in upper stretch. Has trained forwardly at CD and seems to love wet going.
# 11 Devil May Care: Modest sized, talented filly trained by Todd Pletcher. Has a bit of a stretch kick and did look good training over the track this week.
# 12 Conveyance: Front running type was undefeated until Endorsement beat him in Sunland Derby. Has trained sharply and galloped strongly; to be sent from the gate.
# 13 Jackson Bend: Was a star last summer in Florida and has held his form well enough to be second twice to Eskendereya. Fast local works, but distance is big question.
# 14 Mission Impazible: Winner of Louisiana Derby with gritty rally has trained superbly and is one of the potential stretch runners from mid pack to consider.
# 15 Discreetly Mine: Won Risen Star wire to wire in February but was unable to hold together in Louisiana Derby won by stablemate. OK local works, should be part of the speed brigade.
# 16 Awesome Act: Won the Gotham with good rally and then lost shoe and stumbled in Eskendereya's Wood Memorial romp. Trained solidly here. Has wet track breeding. OffshoreInsiders.com will have the predictions from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of GodsTips.
# 17 Dublin: Consistent Graded stakes performer trained by D. Wayne Lukas, has had a strange week here, bearing out often in works and gallops. Bred well for the task though.
# 18 Backtalk: Late comer to the Derby, was good two year old in 2009 and is making third race off a layoff including a win at Delta on a sloppy track. Trained at Keeneland.
# 19 Homeboykris: Another late comer to the Derby who was a very good two year old. Has not run since February, but local works have been better than reported in most forums.
# 20 Sidney's Candy: Won three straight, including SA Derby on the Pro Ride. Worked fast here, with moderate gallop outs. Can he overcome outside post? Avoid speed duel?
Get your Kentucky Derby Odds in the Bodog Racebook!
With the Kentucky Derby almost upon us, Steve Davidowitz, Bodog's resident horse racing expert, has recently been featured in the New York Times blog to discuss the revised, third edition to his hugly successful 1977 best-seller, Betting Throughbreds. In Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century, Davidowitz delves into the changes in horse racing and how horse betting has been influenced by these changes.
In the Q&A, when asked who he favored for this year's Kentucky Derby, Davidowitz said, "I loved Eskendereya until he started to train so gingerly over the track. It was a warning sign and no surprise that he was going to be scratched last Sunday. . .There is so much early speed in this Derby that I think we will see a stretch-running winner. Right now, I slightly prefer Awesome Act, with Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky and Ice Box as the other logical stretch threats, although Sidney's Candy is a very good horse and might not get caught up in the hot pace."
Davidowitz goes on to tell the New York Times, "I am firmly convinced that far from a game of pure luck, horse racing is the most interesting, the most intellectually challenging, the very best gambling game man has ever invented."
Davidowtiz is also a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week. He will also be providing his insight with his "Face Off" articles on Bodog.com as well as his blog posts right here on the Bodog Beat.
Do you have your Kentucky Derby picks yet? Head over to the Bodog Racebook and get your Kentucky Derby betting before the big race tomorrow.
