Experience Counts, But Talent Counts More

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

In many respects we believe experience can be overrated in handicapping college basketball. We subscribe to the John Wooden adage of “give me talent”. That is so much truer now than it was then.  Wooden, of course, coached when freshman were not eligible and when star players did not go to the NBA early.

This is not to say though, that experience is irrelevant. Having participated successfully in the big games is a significant factor when fused with talent.

As a point of fact, UCLA and Kansas have no seniors among their top eight players in terms of minutes played. Ohio State certainly depends a great deal on a mega-talented group of freshmen. North Carolina two years ago lost every starter from a national championship team and now seven of their top eight players are freshman or sophomores.

But avoiding the temptation to go with a big underdog based on the sole fact of seniority is one reality the smart player has to be aware of, especially this time of the year. It’s a factor that gets overanalyzed come conference play and even more so in the Big Dance and NIT.

The fact is that squads with young players in key roles generally develop the most as the year goes on.

That being said, here is a “we report, you decide” list of the most and least experienced of the top teams in the country.  You be fair and balance the upside/experience ratio as we approach when the part of the season when the pressure cooker heats up.

We already referenced above, UCLA, Kansas and North Carolina are dependant on youth.

Among the current Top 10 teams, Florida has two seniors and four juniors.  The Gators beg the question of what kind of experience does a team have? Florida of course has the encounter of winning it all. That is quite the far cry from the proverbial and inevitable mid-major senior-heavy team that becomes the chic dark horse in the NCAA tournament because they start four or five three and four-year players who have never gotten beyond the second round of the Big Dance.

Again, all numbers preceding and following are centered on the top eight players based on minutes played.  Wisconsin has three seniors and two juniors among their top eight.  Only one input player is a freshman.

Experience lovers: Butler is your team with three seniors and four juniors. Also, Pittsburgh has three seniors and three juniors playing among the top eight.  

All in all, in late February and March, give me an underdog with an upside, a young cocky team too naïve to know they are not supposed to win.  

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.