Sports Gambling Watch List; Week Beginning 2-12-07

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Sharp players examine our daily news and notes on OffshoreInsiders.com.  Among the other crib sheets we compile in-house are our pro-active sports gambling “Watch Lists”. These are nuggets to look for based on drastic changes and recent trends by specific teams. Most importantly, we analyze how the teams and oddsmakers will adapt accordingly.

Update: Gonzaga 6-foot-11 forward Josh Heytvelt has been suspended following an arrest. One of the leading candidates for West Coast Conference player of the year, Heytvelt is averaging 15.5 points per game and 7.7 rebounds.

Insight:  Initially Gonzaga will be a go-against especially after the short-term rally-around-adversity reaches the point of diminishing return. The Zags will be a bubble-team (meaning more pressure) without their key cog.  This is a classic go-against proposition in particular when the Bulldogs play against teams in pure spoiler roles. Interpretation: underdogs looking for a defining win in an “everything to gain, nothing to lose” contest. 

However, we look for the suspension to be short-lived as Heytvelt is too important. Teams with dominant big men do the best in conference play and the Big Dance (Florida last year, North Carolina and Illinois two years ago headline many examples). They again will be a dark horse if he returns and the Zags make the NCAA.

Update: Pacers continue to play up or down to the competition. Through Sunday Feb. 11 action, they are just 14-13 SU to teams with a .500 or worse record, seven of the losses at home. They are getting key swingman Marquis Daniels back.

Insight: This is what we preach: the best “splits” are from teams that are not affected by home court advantage, plus the Pacers are like we so often say “predictably unpredictable”. Pending other factors, we look to lean going with them against quality teams on the highway. Daniels is a guy, whose contribution will sneak under the radar, meaning often just inside the number.

Prior to his injury, he played his best basketball, averaging 13.2 points in 27 minutes in the five games before missing action.

Update: The UCLA real-time injury report is crucial for all sports bettors. They face a key road trip to Arizona and Arizona State and may be without starting center Lorenzo Mata and point guard Darren Collison.

Insight: The Bruins will be very vulnerable if they are with devoid of either starter. Freshman Russell Westbrook played miserably filling in for Collison, while Ryan Wright and Alfred Aboya proved to be a huge drop-off from Mata. The depth-challenged Bruins will likely lose both road games, yes even against Arizona State, if both of their starters are absent.

Update: Detroit is 10-2 SU with Chris Webber in the line-up. He has three double-doubles.

Insight: Ride Detroit against quality teams, especially on the road.  Webber is playing in a honeymoon period that will likely last through the playoffs. Rejuvenated underachievers are a component we’ve exploited over the years. Also in the “90 percent of the game is half-mental” aspect, Detroit has convinced themselves lightning has struck twice. Detroit got Rasheed Wallace midseason 2004 en route to a championship and there are a lot of parallels to the current situation.  

Joe Duffy is Senior Handicapper at GodsTips.com. His 18-hour days during the college postseason and the dividends it’s paid for clients have earned him the monikers of “Mr. March” and “the Lord of the Dance”. Get his free gambling news and notes at OffshoreInsiders.com