Second Half NBA Crib Sheet

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

As you enjoy the All-Star break, the sideshows and the manlove debates, we want to share with you our crib sheet for the NBA second half.  These are proactive trends we look to happen, rather than react when it’s too late:

Atlanta Hawks pick up the pace: The Hawks have played their best basketball in up tempo games. When we saw Coach Mike Woodson bring attention to this, we researched using the most important numbers.

They are an uncanny 7-2 SU when the total is 200 or higher. In slower paced games (199.5 or less) they are 14-29, so that stat is big. The fact they enter the break going over 8-4 represents an effort by the Hawks to pick up the pace.  We look for Atlanta to run more up tempo, making the over an edge to keep an eye on.

Lamar Odom and Lakers benefit from the rest: The Lakers do not have a lot of talent beyond Kobe Bryant, who has had to be a one-man show too often this year. Lamar Odom finally looked like the player many expected the first 21 games of the year.  He then went down with a knee injury. Since his return, his numbers are off: down 2.9 points from his pre-injury and he’s shooting a horrid 39.7 percent.  According to Coach Phil Jackson, Odom is around 80 to 85 percent of his full strength.

No player will benefit from the break more than he.  This is both mentally and physically. Because he is so valuable to the depth challenged Lakers, his return to 100 percent will be consequential and should sneak under the oddsmaker’s radar. We expect some extra value for the Lake Show after the break.

Mavericks will be a value to go against: Not exactly an exclusive story—the Mavericks are playing out of the collective skull. However, the oddsmakers noticed. Betting on Dallas right now is like purchasing the trendiest completely sold out video game a week before Christmas—no matter how hard you shop you will have to pay way over market value.

As we so often state, sharp players find line value in teams that often win without covering or lose while staying within the number. Assistant coach Del Harris expressed merely winning the division is not the Mavs priority. “We’re shooting for the big flag”. Look for Dallas to pace themselves as winning games handily will carry a low priority.

They can win games effortlessly and still fail in the wallet. God help the books if they go in a slump.  Look for the Mavericks to miss the covering the number by a small margin very often from now until the regular season ends. 

All-Star break a Bulls market: The Bulls staggered into the break.  But they also finished out with a seven game road trip, followed by a close home loss, and then they flew through a blizzard before fading late to Charlotte.

They are a better team than that.  Few teams need the break more than they do. We look for them to come out of the homestretch gate quickly.

Joe Duffy plays are on GodsTips.com. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.