Our BCS bowl game prep continues and we move on to the Sugar Bowl today. Here's a bowl that breaks down differently than many people expected. Firstly, few football handicappers expected to see Florida anywhere but the BCS Championship game. But, after a loss to Alabama, here the Gators are. Also, most of us would've expected the Bearcats to be fired up for this matchup; instead, they may be mentally broken after their head coach walked out on them to join storied Notre Dame.
2010 Sugar Bowl
(4) Cincinnati vs (5) Florida
Friday, January 1, 8:30 p.m. ET
College football odds favorite: Florida -12.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats have been slighted in so many ways that you could fill a Letterman top-10 list with them. First, they don't get any national title-game love despite their unblemished record this season. Then came the big dagger, as head coach Brian Kelly bolted for the Fighting Irish. Lastly, these undefeated Bearcats are 12.5-point underdogs. Ouch.
Is there reason for sports betting sharps to believe Cincy can overcome all its obstacles? Maybe. With or without Kelly on the sidelines, these guys can score. The Bearcats were sixth in the country in total offense, passing and scoring this season. Quarterback Tony Pike battled a forearm injury but would've contended for the Heisman Trophy otherwise. He threw 26 touchdown passes versus six interceptions and averaged 260-plus passing yards per game. He also has an elite receiving target in Mardy Gilyard, who found pay dirt 11 times this year.
The problem for Cincinnati, however, is that it gives up points almost as often as it scores them. The Bearcats' weak run defense allowed 141 yards per game this season and let multiple teams top the 200-yard mark against them. Florida has one of the nation's best rushing offenses despite lacking an every-down back. Quarterback Tim Tebow alone could give Cincinnati major headaches with his feet.
This matchup ultimately comes down to motivation and Florida has it in spades. Tebow was visibly shaken after the Alabama loss and will make it his mission to end his college career on a high note. Also, with Urban Meyer announcing his leave of absence, the Gators will want to make Friday night special for him in case he decides to stay away from football after all. The Bearcats had the wind taken out of their sails after Kelly's departure and face a tough Gators defense. Expect both teams to put points on the board but go with Florida. The Gators will try hard to make a statement and should thus cover the big spread.
Free pick: Florida -12.5
