Bow Bbreakdowns 2007, Part 2

This is Part-2 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 23-Dec. 27.

East Carolina-Boise State

Boise is much better on both sides of the ball. They get 4.9 more first downs per game on 98.6 total yards per game and .7 more yards per play. East Carolina holds their own in ball control though as the teams are dead even in rushing yards per attempt. Boise gets 1.5 more passing yards per attempt but their passing yards per reception is actually less than many may think, getting a minimal .5 more than the Pirates.

The Broncos actually have slightly better margins of advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Boise boys allow 5.7 fewer first downs per game, 107.7 fewer yards on .8 less yards per play allowed. The superiority is pretty consistent though as they allow .4 less rushing yards per attempt and 1.1 less passing yards per attempt. However, ECU allows .2 fewer passing yards per reception. Boise has a commanding advantage in pass completion percentage allowing 10.2 less. Before you conclude the stats say Boise should be an even bigger chalk, note ECU protects the ball much better with a turnover ratio 10 better than BSU.

Central Michigan-Purdue

Offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets 27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2 more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per reception.

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7 fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better than CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are nearly even.

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Texas-Arizona State

Texas is slightly better overall offensively, but Arizona State is better in the air. The Longhorns amass 52 more yards per game on .8 more yards per play. Texas has the smash mouth upper hand by a significant 1.5 more yards per rush. However it’s ASU that accrues .4 more passing yards per attempt and .7 more passing yards per reception.

Contrary to the stereotype of the Pac-10, the Sun Devils allow 3.3 fewer first downs per game, 35.9 fewer yards and .2 less yards per play. Texas though allows 7.8 fewer yards per rush. The Longhorns get the edge in rushing yards per attempt allowed by .6, but ASU allows 1.0 passing yards per attempt but Texas .4 less passing yards per reception allowed.

ASU has significant superiority on passing percentage allowed by 10.1 and turnover ratio by 10.

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