Sunday, December 30, 2007

Sun Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs South Florida Bulls

Dennis Dixon went down and so did the hopes of the Oregon Ducks, then No. 2 in the nation. South Florida was also a No. 2 at one point and both faltered badly late to end up in the Sun Bowl. Oregon still went 8-4 ATS, but failed to cover after their QB got hurt. The Bulls won their final three games after a three-game skid (Rutgers, UConn, Cincy) and upset Auburn earlier.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 6-point favorites versus the Ducks, while the game's total is sitting at 52.
Oregon forced three turnovers last time out, but still fell 38-31 in overtime to Oregon State as 1.5-point home favorites. The 69 points scored were OVER the posted total of 41.
Justin Roper went 13-for-25 for 144 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and Jonathan Stewart added 161 yards on 39 carries for the Ducks.
Mike Ford ran for two touchdowns in leading South Florida to a 48-37 win over the Pittsburgh Panthers last time out. The Bulls could not cover the 9.5-point spread, while the combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 46.
Ford racked up 63 yards off 16 carries, and Matt Grothe completed 17-of-23 pass attempts for 159 yards in the win.
Team records:
Oregon: 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS
South Florida: 9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS
Oregon most recently:
When playing in December are 4-5-1
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 8-2

South Florida most recently:
When playing in December are 1-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon's last 5 games
Oregon is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Oregon is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
South Florida is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Florida's last 8 games
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