Bowlbreakdowns 2007, Part 1

This is Part-1 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 20-22.

Navy-Utah

The big underdogs Midshipmen have the numbers on the offensive side of the ball. They get 4.8 more first downs per game, 81.8 total yards and 1.1 more yards per play. However while Navy gets 187.8 more rushing yards per game, Utah passes for 106.1 more.

Navy gets 1.7 more rushing yards per attempt and 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. Surprising to many, the Naval Academy also gets 6.1 more passing yards per reception.

The Utes come back and have the edge in most defensive stats. They allow 6.2 fewer first downs per game, 118.4 fewer yards on 1.6 less yards per play. They allow 3.1 less passing yards per attempt and they have a monster advantage in passing percentage allowing 18.7 less. The Utes have the upper hand in turnover ratio by 11.

Florida Atlantic-Memphis

Memphis has slight edges on the offensive side of the ball, but by only 34.3 yards per game and .2 yards per play. However, showing how close they are mathematically on offense, FAU gets .5 more passing yards per reception.

Likewise Florida Atlantic gets the nod defensively, but not by much. They allow 22.4 less total yards per game and .6 less yards per play. The biggest edge by either team is on turnover ratio where Florida Atlantic has a superiority of 13.

Southern Miss-Cincinnati

The Bearcats have the numbers on offense getting 64.2 more yards on .7 more yards per play. However, the Eagles get 18.4 more rushing yards per game. Cincy gets 1.9 more passing yards per reception.

Defensively it’s very close. They are 1.4 yards per game allowed apart with Southern Mississippi getting the nominal win. But the Bearcats actually give up .3 fewer yards per play. While Cincinnati is better against the run by 42.8 yards per game and a full yard per carry, Southern Miss is superior by 44.2 passing yards per game, though it’s Cincy allowing .1 less passing yards per attempt and .6 less per catch. As is the case with many statistically evenly matched squads, where the big advantage lies is in the turnover margin category. Give that to Cincinnati by a significant margin of 21.

Nevada Reno-New Mexico

Nevada has a substantial lead in every significant offensive category except completion percentage in which New Mexico gets the edge by 4.8. Nevada gets 130.8 more total yards per game, 1.6 more yards per play. The edge is across the board 1.5 rushing yards per attempt, 2.2 passing yards per attempt and a very efficient 5.2 more passing yards per reception. Nevada also gets 6.2 more first downs per game.

New Mexico has the better statistical defense, but by slightly smaller margins. They allow 72.3 fewer total yards on 1.0 less yards per play. Talk about consistent, New Mexico allows 1.0 less rushing yards per attempt and 1.0 less passing yards per attempt.

UCLA-BYU

The Cougars are a cut above on each side of the ball, especially on offense. BYU gets 125 more total yards per game, led by 8.0 more first downs and 1.1 more yards per play. They also get 1.6 more passing yards per attempt and complete a commanding 11.3 more percent of their pass attempts.

The teams are dead even defensively on the ever important yards per play category, though BYU allows 39.5 less total yards per game. All in all, the teams are extremely close in the major handicapping defensive comparisons.

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